Linkage Between In-Stream Total Phosphorus and Land Cover in Chugoku District, Japan: An Ann Approach

Linkage Between In-Stream Total Phosphorus and Land Cover in Chugoku District, Japan: An Ann Approach Development of any area often leads to more intensive land use and increase in the generation of pollutants. Modeling these changes is critical to evaluate emerging changes in land use and their effect on stream water quality. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of spatial patterns in land use and population density on the water quality of streams, in case of data scarcity, in the Chugoku district of Japan. The study employed artificial neural network (ANN) technique to assess the relationship between the total phosphorous (TP) in river water and the land use in 21 river basins in the district, and the model was able to reasonably estimate the TP in the stream water. Uncertainty analysis of ANN estimates was performed using the Monte Carlo framework, and the results indicated that the ANN model predictions are statistically similar to the characteristics of the measured TP values. It was observed that any reduction in forested area or increase in agricultural land in the watersheds may cause the increase of TP concentration in the stream. Therefore, appropriate watershed management practices should be followed before making any land use change in the Chugoku district. Vzťah Medzi Celkovým Obsahom Fosforu v Toku a Porastom v Dištrikte Chugoku, Japonsko: Využitie Neurónových Sietí Rozvoj územia často súvisí so zintenzívnením využívania krajiny a produkciou znečistenia. Dôležité je modelovanie týchto zmien a ich vplyvu na kvalitu vody v tokoch. Cieľom štúdie je určiť vplyv priestorových zmien pri využívaní krajiny a zmeny hustoty osídlenia na kvalitu vody v tokoch v čase nedostatku vody v oblasti Chugoku, Japonsko. Pri riešení sa využívajú umelé neurónové siete (artificial neural network -ANN), prostredníctvom ktorých sa určuje vzťah medzi celkovým obsahom fosforu (TP) v toku a využívaním kajiny v 21 povodiach oblasti; tento model je schopný vypočítať TP v tokoch. Analýza neurčitosti výsledkov dosiahnutých pomocou ANN bola vykonaná metódou Monte Carlo; výsledky analýzy naznačujú, že predpovede pomocou metódy ANN sú štatisticky podobné meraným hodnotám TP. Bolo zistené, že redukcia lesnatosti a zvýšenie plochy poľnohospodársky využívanej pôdy v povodí môže viesť k zvýšeniu koncentrrácie TP v toku. Je preto potrebné pred zmenou vo využívaní krajiny prijať zodpovedajúce opatrenia v manažmente krajiny, ktoré budú minimalizovať negatívne dôsledky zmien využívania krajiny.

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