Stepwise Selection Method of Single Model for Combination Forecast Based on Encompassing Test of Combination Models

Combination forecasting model is actually the use of the individual prediction models.How to select the single models in combination forecast is very important.The encompassing test method of combination forecasting models is applied to select single models.The single model group selection method is presented based on encompassing test of combination forecasting models to improve precision of combination forecasting model.The method is mainly to determine whether a single model to be retained in the combined forecasting model according to encompassing test between combined forecasting models of a single forecast method increased with the original combination forecasting model.Finally,the analysis of the application example shows that the predictive accuracy effect of combination forecasting model is improved according to the combined forecasting model encompassing test select single models,so that this method is feasible and effective.