Predictors of rheumatic fever in sore throat patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Concerns about rheumatic fever (RF) drive antibiotic prescriptions for sore throat (ST) in endemic areas. Better guidance is needed on which patients are likely to develop RF in order to avoid misuse and overuse of antibiotics. Our aim was to identify predictive factors for RF in ST patients. Methods Multiple databases were searched to identify cohort, case–control, cross-sectional or randomised controlled trials that measured RF incidence in ST patients. An inverse variance random effects model was used to pool the data and calculate odds ratios (ORs). Results Seven studies with a total of 6890 participants were included: three RCTs and four observational studies. Factors significantly associated with RF development following ST were positive group A streptococcal (GAS) swab (OR 1.74 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.13 to 2.69]), previous RF history (OR 13.22 [95% CI 4.86 to 35.93]) and a cardiac murmur (OR 3.55 [95% CI 1.81 to 6.94]). Many potential risk factors were not reported in any of the included studies, highlighting important evidence gaps. Conclusions ST patients in endemic areas with a positive GAS swab, previous RF history and a cardiac murmur are at increased risk of developing RF. This review identifies vital gaps in our knowledge of factors predicting RF development in ST patients. Further research is needed to develop better clinical prediction tools and rationalise antibiotic use for ST.