Closure of the Desert Road Due to Snow and Ice

The paper uses stochastic modelling to determine the probabilities and likely durations of closure of the Desert Road due to snow and ice. This is the first stage in the application of risk assessment methodology to the evaluation of road networks. For each storm event, stochastic relationships are established between the magnitude of the event and the duration of the road closure that might result. The total risk of closure is determined using Monte Carlo simulation for each risk component. The output of the model is a probability distribution of the expected frequency and likely duration of the closure of the Desert Road due to snow and ice.