The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957: A Further Analysis

in the United Kingdom (W) can be explained to a very large extent by: (i) the percentage of the labour force unemployed (U), and (ii) the rate of change of unemployment (U). After an inspection of the data, Phillips concluded not only that there is a clearly observable relationship between these variables, but that the form of the relationship has been remarkably stable over a period of almost one hundred years. The purpose of the present paper is to reconsider Phillips' work in some detail. In particular it seemed necessary: (i) to consider the general theoretical model that is being tested; (ii) to quantify Phillips' results, determining, if possible, the proportion of the variance in money wage rates that is associated with the two variables, level of unemployment (U) and rate of change of unemploy-