论文信息 - Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: An Elicitation Analysis

Farmers' Subjective Probabilities in Northern Thailand: An Elicitation Analysis

The ability of agricultural decision makers to formulate logical expectations about the outcome of risky events in crop production and marketing is investigated. Measures of Northern Thailand farmers' perceptions of yield, price, and net income are attempted using an elicitation approach which includes a significant monetary reward. This approach is found to be feasible. The expectations derived are logical and consistent when compared to harvest results and farmers' actual production practices. Farmers' expectations about sources of risk and the correlation of socioeconomic characteristics with expectation accuracy are analyzed.

William Grisley | Earl D. Kellogg | W. Grisley | E. D. Kellogg

[1] L. J. Savage,et al. The Foundations of Statistics , 1955 .

[2] D. Bessler. Aggregated Personalistic Beliefs on Yields of Selected Crops Estimated Using ARIMA Processes , 1980 .

[3] Peter B. R. Hazell,et al. A Linear Alternative to Quadratic and Semivariance Programming for Farm Planning under Uncertainty , 1971 .

[4] E. Francisco,et al. Chance And Choice West Of The Darling , 1972 .

[5] Josef Hadar,et al. Rules for Ordering Uncertain Prospects , 1969 .

[6] H. P. Binswanger. Attitudes toward risk: Experimental measurement in rural india , 1980 .

[7] James A. Roumasset,et al. Rice and risk: Decision-making among low-income farmers , 1977 .

[8] J. Raven. Coloured progressive matrices : sets A, Ab, B , 1956 .

[9] Jack A. Meyer,et al. Choice among distributions , 1977 .

[10] B. Fischhoff,et al. Behavioral Decision Theory , 1977 .

[11] W. Grisley. Effect of risk and risk aversion on farm decision-making: farmers in northern Thailand. , 1980 .

[12] Gerald A. Carlson,et al. A Decision Theoretic Approach to Crop Disease Prediction and Control , 1970 .