Theft in price-volatile markets : On the relationship between copper price and copper theft

Recently, against a backdrop of general reductions in acquisitive crime, increases have been observed in the frequency of metal theft offences. This is generally attributed to increases in metal prices in response to global demand exceeding supply. The main objective of this paper was to examine the relationship between the price of copper and levels of copper theft, focusing specifically on copper cable theft from the British railway network. Results indicated a significant positive correlation between lagged increases in copper price and copper cable theft. No support was found for rival hypotheses concerning U.K. unemployment levels and the general popularity of theft as crime type. An ancillary aim was to explore offender modus operandi over time, which is discussed in terms of its implications for preventing copper cable theft. We finish with a discussion of theft of other commodities in pricevolatile markets.

[1]  H. Rees,et al.  Copper Price Behaviour and the London Metal Exchange , 1971 .

[2]  T. Bresnahan,et al.  Inventories as an Asset: The Volatility of Copper Prices , 1985 .

[3]  Robert H. Langworthy,et al.  The spatial distribution of sting targets , 1992 .

[4]  Nancy C. Lavigne.  Gasoline Drive-Offs: Designing a Less Convenient Environment , 1994 .

[5]  Christopher L. Gilbert,et al.  Metals price volatility, 1972-1995 , 1995 .

[6]  J. Peter Ferderer,et al.  Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy , 1996 .

[7]  A. Freiberg.  Regulating Markets for Stolen Property* , 1997 .

[8]  M. Felson,et al.  Opportunity Makes the Thief Practical theory for crime prevention , 1998 .

[9]  R. Clarke.  Hot Products : understanding , anticipating and reducing demand for stolen goods , 1999 .

[10]  Kevin Bracker,et al.  Detecting and modeling changing volatility in the copper futures market , 1999 .

[11]  N. Fielding,et al.  Crime and economic activity: a panel data approach , 1999 .

[12]  R. Stevenson,et al.  The Stolen Goods Market in New South Wales i THE STOLEN GOODS MARKET IN NEW SOUTH WALES : AN INTERVIEW STUDY WITH IMPRISONED BURGLARS , 2000 .

[13]  G. Farrell,et al.  Towards an Economic Approach to Crime and Prevention , 2000 .

[14]  L. Collins,et al.  The stolen property market in the Australian Capital Territory , 2003 .

[15]  Michael McAleer,et al.  Econometric Modelling of Non-Ferrous Metal Prices , 2004 .

[16]  M. Sutton.  Complicity, trading dynamics and prevalence in stolen goods markets , 2005 .

[17]  Melanie Wellsmith,et al.  The Influence of Purchase Price and Ownership Levels on Theft Targets The Example of Domestic Burglary , 2005 .

[18]  G. Laycock.  Property Marking : a deterrent to domestic burglary ? , 2005 .

[19]  T. Graedel,et al.  Metal stocks and sustainability , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[20]  M. Felson.  Crime and nature , 2006 .

[21]  The Opening and Closing of Breaches , 2006 .

[22]  Jacqueline Fitzgerald,et al.  Relationship between Petrol Theft and Petrol Prices, The , 2006 .

[23]  H. Lean,et al.  Will Inflation Increase Crime Rate? New Evidence from Bounds and Modified Wald Tests , 2007 .

[24]  A. Sidebottom,et al.  What Do You Mean, ‘Is It Secure?’ Redesigning Language to be Fit for the Task of Assessing the Security of Domestic and Personal Electronic Goods , 2007 .

[25]  Carl Johan Lagerkvist.  Introductory Econometrics--Using Monte Carlo Simulation with Microsoft Excel , 2007 .

[26]  Luke Bennett,et al.  Assets under attack: metal theft, the built environment and the dark side of the global recycling market , 2008 .

[27]  William Spelman.  Specifying the Relationship Between Crime and Prisons , 2008 .

[28]  B. Reilly,et al.  Domestic burglaries and the real price of audio-visual goods: Some time series evidence for Britain , 2008 .

[29]  R. Clarke,et al.  The Reasoning Criminal , 2014 .

[30]  Saleem H. Ali.  Precious metals , 2015, Science.