Review of tourism forecasting research with internet data

Abstract Internet techniques significantly influence the tourism industry and Internet data have been used widely used in tourism and hospitality research. However, reviews on the recent development of Internet data in tourism forecasting remain limited. This work reviews articles on tourism forecasting research with Internet data published in academic journals from 2012 to 2019. Then, the findings ae synthesized based on the following Internet data classifications: search engine, web traffic, social media, and multiple sources. Results show that among such classifications, search engine data are most widely incorporated into tourism forecasting. Time series and econometric forecasting models remain dominant, whereas artificial intelligence methods are still developing. For unstructured social media and multi-source data, methodological advancements in text mining, sentiment analysis, and social network analysis are required to transform data into time series for forecasting. Combined Internet data and forecasting models will help in improving forecasting accuracy further in future research.

[1]  Rob Law,et al.  Tourism demand forecasting: A deep learning approach , 2019, Annals of Tourism Research.

[2]  Ayelet Gal-Tzur,et al.  Using Question & Answer Forums as a Platform for Improving Transport-Related Information for Tourists , 2020, Journal of Travel Research.

[3]  Mingming Hu,et al.  Data source combination for tourism demand forecasting , 2020, Tourism Economics.

[4]  Francesco Orsi,et al.  Using geotagged photographs and GIS analysis to estimate visitor flows in natural areas , 2013 .

[5]  Junjian Tang,et al.  Evaluation of the Forecast Models of Chinese Tourists to Thailand Based on Search Engine Attention: A Case Study of Baidu , 2018, Wirel. Pers. Commun..

[6]  Erik Brynjolfsson,et al.  Crowd-squared: amplifying the predictive power of search trend data , 2016 .

[7]  Rob Law,et al.  Hotel location evaluation: A combination of machine learning tools and web GIS , 2015 .

[8]  Andrea Fronzetti Colladon,et al.  Using social network and semantic analysis to analyze online travel forums and forecast tourism demand , 2019, Decis. Support Syst..

[9]  C. Artola,et al.  Can internet searches forecast tourism inflows , 2015 .

[10]  Zili Zhang,et al.  The power of expert identity: How website-recognized expert reviews influence travelers' online rating behavior , 2016 .

[11]  Wenxing Lu,et al.  Intelligence in Tourism Management: A Hybrid FOA-BP Method on Daily Tourism Demand Forecasting with Web Search Data , 2019, Mathematics.

[12]  Lin Wang,et al.  Stacked autoencoder with echo-state regression for tourism demand forecasting using search query data , 2018, Appl. Soft Comput..

[13]  Weiguo Fan,et al.  Effects of user-provided photos on hotel review helpfulness: An analytical approach with deep leaning , 2018 .

[14]  Gang Li,et al.  Tourism forecasting research: a perspective article , 2020 .

[15]  Jueyou Li,et al.  Forecasting Hotel Accommodation Demand Based on LSTM Model Incorporating Internet Search Index , 2019, Sustainability.

[16]  Roberto Rivera,et al.  A dynamic linear model to forecast hotel registrations in Puerto Rico using Google Trends data , 2015, 1512.08097.

[17]  Alain Yee-Loong Chong,et al.  Analyzing key influences of tourists' acceptance of online reviews in travel decisions , 2018, Internet Res..

[18]  Xiankai Huang,et al.  The Baidu Index: Uses in predicting tourism flows –A case study of the Forbidden City , 2017 .

[19]  Osvaldo Pacheco,et al.  Google Trends in tourism and hospitality research: a systematic literature review , 2019 .

[20]  Sergio Toral,et al.  Identification of the Unique Attributes of Tourist Destinations from Online Reviews , 2018 .

[21]  Enrique Bigné,et al.  Harnessing stakeholder input on Twitter: A case study of short breaks in Spanish tourist cities , 2019, Tourism Management.

[22]  R. Law,et al.  Social Media in Tourism and Hospitality: A Literature Review , 2013 .

[23]  Jie Jennifer Zhang,et al.  Social Media and Firm Equity Value , 2013, Inf. Syst. Res..

[24]  P. Berthon,et al.  Marketing meets Web 2.0, social media, and creative consumers: Implications for international marketing strategy , 2012 .

[25]  Maximo Camacho,et al.  Forecasting travellers in Spain with Google’s search volume indices , 2018 .

[26]  Ryan L. Sharp,et al.  Bringing forecasting into the future: Using Google to predict visitation in U.S. national parks. , 2019, Journal of environmental management.

[27]  Ying Liu,et al.  Hot topics and emerging trends in tourism forecasting research: A scientometric review , 2018, Tourism Economics.

[28]  Xin Yang,et al.  Forecasting Chinese tourist volume with search engine data , 2015 .

[29]  Irem Önder,et al.  Forecasting tourism demand with Google trends: Accuracy comparison of countries versus cities , 2017 .

[30]  Ling Li,et al.  Big data in tourism research: A literature review , 2018, Tourism Management.

[31]  Shah Jahan Miah,et al.  A Big Data Analytics Method for Tourist Behaviour Analysis , 2017, Inf. Manag..

[32]  Rob Law,et al.  A novel hybrid model for tourist volume forecasting incorporating search engine data , 2017 .

[33]  Chang Liu,et al.  Forecasting tourism demand using search query data: A hybrid modelling approach , 2019, Tourism Economics.

[34]  Haiyan Song,et al.  Predicting Tourist Demand Using Big Data , 2017 .

[35]  N. B. Anuar,et al.  The rise of "big data" on cloud computing: Review and open research issues , 2015, Inf. Syst..

[36]  Qiang Ye,et al.  Sentiment classification of online reviews to travel destinations by supervised machine learning approaches , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[37]  Tao Chen,et al.  Effective tourist volume forecasting supported by PCA and improved BPNN using Baidu index , 2018, Tourism Management.

[38]  Stefan Lessmann,et al.  Spurious patterns in Google Trends data - An analysis of the effects on tourism demand forecasting in Germany , 2019 .

[39]  Haiyan Song,et al.  A review of research on tourism demand forecasting: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on tourism demand forecasting , 2019, Annals of Tourism Research.

[40]  Alvis Cheuk M. Fong,et al.  Predictive aspect-based sentiment classification of online tourist reviews , 2018, J. Inf. Sci..

[41]  Irem Önder,et al.  Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics , 2016 .

[42]  Bing Pan,et al.  Forecasting Destination Weekly Hotel Occupancy with Big Data , 2017 .

[43]  Haiyan Song,et al.  New developments in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting , 2017 .

[44]  Dimitrios Buhalis,et al.  Forecasting tourist arrivals at attractions: Search engine empowered methodologies , 2018, Tourism Economics.

[45]  Ye Sun,et al.  Spatial-temporal response patterns of tourist flow under impulse pre-trip information search: From online to arrival , 2019, Tourism Management.

[46]  Kwok-Leung Tsui,et al.  Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index , 2019 .

[47]  Fang-Mei Tseng,et al.  Big Data analytics for forecasting tourism destination arrivals with the applied Vector Autoregression model , 2018 .

[48]  Jason Li Chen,et al.  Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade , 2018, Tourism Economics.

[49]  Rob Law,et al.  Network analysis of big data research in tourism , 2020 .

[50]  Rob Law,et al.  Forecasting tourism demand with composite search index , 2017 .

[51]  Irem Önder,et al.  Classifying multi-destination trips in Austria with big data , 2017 .

[52]  Ying Liu,et al.  Analysis of the prediction capability of web search data based on the HE-TDC method ‒ prediction of the volume of daily tourism visitors , 2017 .

[53]  Bing Pan,et al.  Forecasting hotel room demand using search engine data. , 2012 .

[54]  Bing Pan,et al.  Google Trends and tourists' arrivals: Emerging biases and proposed corrections , 2018, Tourism Management.

[55]  Wonho Song,et al.  Short-term forecasting of Japanese tourist inflow to South Korea using Google trends data , 2017 .

[56]  Kun-Huang Huarng,et al.  Application of Google Trends to Forecast Tourism Demand , 2019 .

[57]  Bing Pan,et al.  Predicting Hotel Demand Using Destination Marketing Organization’s Web Traffic Data , 2014 .

[58]  Zheng Xiang,et al.  A comparative analysis of major online review platforms: Implications for social media analytics in hospitality and tourism , 2017 .

[59]  Andrea Guizzardi,et al.  Modelling international monthly tourism demand at the micro destination level with climate indicators and web-traffic data , 2020, Tourism Economics.

[60]  Kejo Starosta,et al.  The impact of German-speaking online media on tourist arrivals in popular tourist destinations for Europeans , 2018, Applied Economics.

[61]  H. Varian,et al.  Predicting the Present with Google Trends , 2012 .

[62]  Prosper F. Bangwayo-Skeete,et al.  Can Google data improve the forecasting performance of tourist arrivals? Mixed-data sampling approach , 2015 .

[63]  W. Kim,et al.  The effectiveness of managing social media on hotel performance. , 2015 .

[64]  Jung-Hsien Chiang,et al.  Using Heterogeneous Social Media as Auxiliary Information to Improve Hotel Recommendation Performance , 2018, IEEE Access.