A general approach to Bayesian networks for the interpretation of evidence.

Bayesian networks (BNs) are mathematically and statistically rigorous techniques for handling uncertainty. The field of forensic science has recently attributed increased attention to the many advantages of this graphical method for assisting the evaluation of scientific evidence. However, the majority of contributions that relate to this topic restrict themselves to the presentation of already "constructed" BNs, and often, only a few explanations are given as to how one obtains a specific BN structure for a given problem. Based on several examples, the present paper will therefore attempt to explain in more detail some guiding considerations that might be helpful for the elicitation of appropriate structures for BNs.

[1]  Finn V. Jensen,et al.  Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs , 2001, Statistics for Engineering and Information Science.

[2]  Paolo Garbolino,et al.  Evaluation of scientific evidence using Bayesian networks. , 2002, Forensic science international.

[3]  Ram C. Dahiya,et al.  Let's Make a Deal: The Player's Dilemma , 1991 .

[4]  Colin Aitken,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in evidential assessment , 1989 .

[5]  Bernard Robertson,et al.  Taking Fact Analysis Seriously , 1993 .

[6]  Jonathan Whitaker,et al.  Interpreting small quantities of DNA: the hierarchy of propositions and the use of Bayesian networks. , 2002, Journal of forensic sciences.

[7]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[8]  F. e..  Calcul des Probabilités , 1889, Nature.

[9]  Michael I. Jordan,et al.  Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems , 1999 .

[10]  D. Schum.  The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning , 1994 .

[11]  Max Henrion,et al.  Some Practical Issues in Constructing Belief Networks , 1987, UAI.

[12]  Franco Taroni,et al.  How the probability of a false positive affects the value of DNA evidence. , 2003, Journal of forensic sciences.

[13]  Martin Neil,et al.  Building large-scale Bayesian networks , 2000, The Knowledge Engineering Review.

[14]  D J Balding,et al.  Evaluating DNA profile evidence when the suspect is identified through a database search. , 1996, Journal of forensic sciences.

[15]  Calcul des probabilités : leçons professées pendant le deuxième semestre 1893-1894 / par H. Poincaré ; rédigées par A. Quiquet , 1896 .

[16]  A. Philip Dawid,et al.  USING A GRAPHICAL METHOD TO ASSIST THE EVALUATION OF COMPLICATED PATTERNS OF EVIDENCE , 1997 .

[17]  Dw Van Boxel,et al.  Probabilistic Expert Systems for Forensic Inference from Genetic Markers , 2002 .

[18]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Chapter 2 – BAYESIAN INFERENCE , 1988 .

[19]  Achilles Venetoulias,et al.  Monty Hall's Probability Puzzle , 1991 .