Diversification of Agricultural Areas in Indonesia using Dynamic Copula Modeling and K-Means Clustering

Agriculture is one of the main pillars of economic growth in Indonesia. Failure in this sector can result in faltering economic stability of the country. Thus, to minimize these failures, mapping of areas with particular commodity potential is needed. One of the main factors affecting the growth of crops is rainfall. Therefore, this paper aims to model the potential distribution of commodity growth based on rainfall precipitation using dynamic copula. The modeling results are then used as a basis for grouping the potential of food crop commodities in Indonesia. The determination of the group was carried out using the k-means clustering method. We expect that the result of the modeling can provide an overview for farmers or the government to make policies related to the optimization of Indonesia's agricultural sector. This result will enable the government to offer facilities that can minimize agricultural losses, such as superior seeds that are resistant to weather changes and the provision of training for enhancing farming skills. In addition, it is also suggested to diversify farm areas to reduce the failures due to dependence on a single agricultural product.

[1]  María Concepción Ausín,et al.  Time-varying joint distribution through copulas , 2010, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[2]  Malika Charrad,et al.  NbClust: An R Package for Determining the Relevant Number of Clusters in a Data Set , 2014 .

[3]  N. Meinshausen,et al.  The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields , 2019, Environmental Research Letters.

[4]  M. Rockinger,et al.  The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application , 2006 .

[5]  Daniela M. Witten,et al.  An Introduction to Statistical Learning: with Applications in R , 2013 .

[6]  Richard A. Johnson,et al.  Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis , 1983 .

[7]  Jiawei Han,et al.  Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques , 2000 .

[8]  REGIONAL AND FARM-LEVEL RISK ANALYSES WITH THE SINGLE-INDEX MODEL , 1991 .

[9]  Rong-Gang Cong,et al.  The Interdependence between Rainfall and Temperature: Copula Analyses , 2012, TheScientificWorldJournal.

[10]  W. Gu,et al.  Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China , 2015, Natural Hazards.

[11]  Lindsay C. Stringer,et al.  Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data , 2012 .

[12]  Andrew J. Patton.  Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence , 2006 .

[13]  M. Yokozawa,et al.  Modelling the impacts of weather and climate variability on crop productivity over a large area: A new process-based model development, optimization, and uncertainties analysis , 2009 .

[14]  Maya Nayak,et al.  Principal Component Analysis using Singular Value Decomposition for Image Compression , 2014 .

[15]  Yiyong Cai,et al.  The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia , 2014 .

[16]  A. Stein,et al.  Evaluating the effects of climate extremes on crop yield, production and price using multivariate distributions: A new copula application , 2019 .

[17]  A. Russo,et al.  Copula-based agricultural drought risk of rainfed cropping systems , 2019, Agricultural Water Management.

[18]  M. Odening,et al.  On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk , 2010 .

[19]  Ramzi A. Haraty,et al.  An Enhanced k-Means Clustering Algorithm for Pattern Discovery in Healthcare Data , 2015, Int. J. Distributed Sens. Networks.

[20]  L. Stroosnijder,et al.  Farmers׳ strategies to perceived trends of rainfall and crop productivity in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia , 2014 .

[21]  Thong Nguyen-Huy,et al.  Modeling the joint influence of multiple synoptic-scale, climate mode indices on Australian wheat yield using a vine copula-based approach , 2018, European Journal of Agronomy.

[22]  S. Falco,et al.  Rainfall variability and food crop portfolio choice: evidence from Ethiopia , 2012, Food Security.