Equivalence classes of staged trees

In this paper we give a complete characterization of the statistical equivalence classes of CEGs and of staged trees. We are able to show that all graphical representations of the same model share a common polynomial description. Then, simple transformations on that polynomial enable us to traverse the corresponding class of graphs. We illustrate our results with a real analysis of the implicit dependence relationships within a previously studied dataset.

[1]  D. Fergusson,et al.  Social and family factors in childhood hospital admission. , 1986, Journal of epidemiology and community health.

[2]  David J. Spiegelhalter,et al.  Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems , 1990 .

[3]  Ross D. Shachter Probabilistic Inference and Influence Diagrams , 1988, Oper. Res..

[4]  A. P. Dawid,et al.  Independence properties of directed Markov fields. Networks, 20, 491-505 , 1990 .

[5]  Frank Jensen,et al.  Optimal junction Trees , 1994, UAI.

[6]  Craig Boutilier,et al.  Context-Specific Independence in Bayesian Networks , 1996, UAI.

[7]  Glenn Shafer,et al.  The art of causal conjecture , 1996 .

[8]  D. Madigan,et al.  A characterization of Markov equivalence classes for acyclic digraphs , 1997 .

[9]  A. Salmerón,et al.  Importance sampling in Bayesian networks using probability trees , 2000 .

[10]  Giovanni Pistone,et al.  Gröbner bases and factorisation in discrete probability and Bayes , 2001, Stat. Comput..

[11]  Luc Christiaensen,et al.  Poverty Measurement and Analysis , 2002 .

[12]  Jesko Hentschel,et al.  Измерение И Анализ Бедности [Poverty Measurement and Analysis] , 2002 .

[13]  S. Lauritzen,et al.  Chain graph models and their causal interpretations , 2002 .

[14]  Adnan Darwiche,et al.  A differential approach to inference in Bayesian networks , 2000, JACM.

[15]  Kenny Q. Ye Indicator function and its application in two-level factorial designs , 2003 .

[16]  Milan Studený,et al.  Probabilistic conditional independence structures , 2006, Information science and statistics.

[17]  D. Geiger,et al.  On the toric algebra of graphical models , 2006, math/0608054.

[18]  Seth Sullivant,et al.  Algebraic statistical models , 2007 .

[19]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  Conditional independence and chain event graphs , 2008, Artif. Intell..

[20]  David Heckerman,et al.  A Tutorial on Learning with Bayesian Networks , 1999, Innovations in Bayesian Networks.

[21]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  Propagation using Chain Event Graphs , 2008, UAI.

[22]  Seth Sullivant,et al.  Lectures on Algebraic Statistics , 2008 .

[23]  Henry P. Wynn,et al.  Algebraic and geometric methods in statistics , 2009 .

[24]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice , 2010 .

[25]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  Causal analysis with Chain Event Graphs , 2010, Artif. Intell..

[26]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  Bayesian MAP model selection of chain event graphs , 2009, J. Multivar. Anal..

[27]  Tyler VanderWeele,et al.  Causality, 2nd edn , 2011 .

[28]  Seth Sullivant,et al.  Algebraic statistics , 2018, ISSAC.

[29]  Peter A. Thwaites,et al.  Causal identifiability via Chain Event Graphs , 2013, Artif. Intell..

[30]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  Refining a Bayesian Network using a Chain Event Graph , 2013, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[31]  Robert G. Cowell,et al.  Causal discovery through MAP selection of stratified chain event graphs , 2014 .

[32]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  A Separation Theorem for Chain Event Graphs , 2015, ArXiv.

[33]  Manuele Leonelli,et al.  Sensitivity analysis, multilinearity and beyond , 2015, ArXiv.

[34]  Manuele Leonelli,et al.  A Differential Approach for Staged Trees , 2015, ECSQARU.

[35]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  A Differential Approach to Causality in Staged Trees , 2016, Probabilistic Graphical Models.

[36]  Rodrigo A. Collazo,et al.  A New Family of Non-Local Priors for Chain Event Graph Model Selection , 2016 .

[37]  Christiane Görgen An algebraic characterisation of staged trees : their geometry and causal implications , 2017 .

[38]  Jim Q. Smith,et al.  Chain Event Graphs , 2018 .