Reliability-based condition assessment of steel containment and liners

Steel containments and liners in nuclear power plants may be exposed to aggressive environments that may cause their strength and stiffness to decrease during the plant service life. Among the factors recognized as having the potential to cause structural deterioration are uniform, pitting or crevice corrosion; fatigue, including crack initiation and propagation to fracture; elevated temperature; and irradiation. The evaluation of steel containments and liners for continued service must provide assurance that they are able to withstand future extreme loads during the service period with a level of reliability that is sufficient for public safety. Rational methodologies to provide such assurances can be developed using modern structural reliability analysis principles that take uncertainties in loading, strength, and degradation resulting from environmental factors into account. The research described in this report is in support of the Steel Containments and Liners Program being conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The research demonstrates the feasibility of using reliability analysis as a tool for performing condition assessments and service life predictions of steel containments and liners. Mathematical models that describe time-dependent changes in steel due to aggressive environmental factors are identified, and statistical data supporting the use of these models in time-dependent reliability analysis are summarized. The analysis of steel containment fragility is described, and simple illustrations of the impact on reliability of structural degradation are provided. The role of nondestructive evaluation in time-dependent reliability analysis, both in terms of defect detection and sizing, is examined. A Markov model provides a tool for accounting for time-dependent changes in damage condition of a structural component or system. 151 refs.

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