ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997–1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.

[1]  M. Huber,et al.  Eocene El Niño: Evidence for Robust Tropical Dynamics in the "Hothouse" , 2003, Science.

[2]  R. Bryant.  Late Victorian holocausts: El Nino famines and the making of the third world. , 2002 .

[3]  P. deMenocal,et al.  The Pliocene Paradox (Mechanisms for a Permanent El Niño) , 2006, Science.

[4]  Feldman,et al.  Biological and chemical response of the equatorial pacific ocean to the 1997-98 El Nino , 1999, Science.

[5]  Meteorology: Bad weather ahead , 2006, Nature.

[6]  Andrew P. Morse,et al.  Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles , 2006, Nature.

[7]  R. Feely,et al.  Decadal variability of the air‐sea CO2 fluxes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean , 2006 .

[8]  M. Glantz.  Once burned, twice shy? Lessons learned from the 1997-98 El Niño , 2001 .

[9]  L. Quetin,et al.  Episodic recruitment in Antarctic krill Euphausia superba in the Palmer LTER study region , 2003 .

[10]  F. Siegert,et al.  Increased damage from fires in logged forests during droughts caused by El Niño , 2001, Nature.

[11]  Francisco P. Chavez,et al.  From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal Change in the Pacific Ocean , 2003, Science.

[12]  R. Naylor,et al.  USING EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CLIMATE DATA TO IMPROVE FOOD POLICY PLANNING IN INDONESIA , 2002 .

[13]  J. Bjerknes,et al.  A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature , 1966 .

[14]  Christopher B. Field,et al.  Biospheric Primary Production During an ENSO Transition , 2001, Science.

[15]  E. Cook,et al.  Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Through a Glacial-Interglacial Cycle , 2001, Science.

[16]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures , 2002 .

[17]  Alexey Kaplan,et al.  Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years , 2004, Nature.

[18]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Monsoon Failure During El Niño , 2006, Science.

[19]  L. Levin,et al.  Benthic processes on the Peru margin: a transect across the oxygen minimum zone during the 1997–98 El Niño , 2002 .

[20]  W. Kessler,et al.  Is ENSO a cycle or a series of events? , 2002 .

[21]  M. Collins,et al.  El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study , 2005 .

[22]  Michael H. Glantz,et al.  Currents of Change: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on Climate and Society , 2000 .

[23]  Mike Davis,et al.  Late Victorian holocausts : El Niño famines and the making of the Third World , 2003 .

[24]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg,et al.  Ecological responses to recent climate change , 2002, Nature.

[25]  Kung-Sik Chan,et al.  Ecological Effects of Climate Fluctuations , 2002, Science.

[26]  J. Nunemacher,et al.  Optimal management of giant cell arteritis and polymyalgia rheumatica , 2012, Therapeutics and clinical risk management.

[27]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino , 1999, Science.

[28]  R. Harrison.  Repercussions of El Niño: drought causes extinction and the breakdown of mutualism in Borneo , 2000, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[29]  S. Page,et al.  The amount of carbon released from peat and forest fires in Indonesia during 1997 , 2002, Nature.

[30]  B. Grant,et al.  Unpredictable Evolution in a 30-Year Study of Darwin's Finches , 2002, Science.

[31]  N. Mantua,et al.  The Pacific Decadal Oscillation , 2002 .

[32]  A. Fedorov,et al.  Is El Nino changing? , 2000, Science.

[33]  Andrew P. Morse,et al.  DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER) , 2004 .

[34]  Upmanu Lall,et al.  Seasonal to interannual ensemble streamflow forecasts for Ceara, Brazil: Applications of a multivariate, semiparametric algorithm , 2003 .