Comprehensive Diagnosis Method of Hydrologic Time Series Change-point Analysis

In the case of using the statistical method to check out change-point , the result may be unlikely and inconsistent with the hydrological investigated results. In the case of using various methods to analyze, the results are inconsistent. A comprehensive diagnosis method is presented in this paper after studying and summarizing various change-point analysis methods in common use. The method checks out the change-point by analyzing the result of single change-point analysis method. A weight is assigned to every probable change-point. The most probable change-point is the one which has the biggest weight. At the same time ,the method considers the hydrological investigated results. The method is successfully used to analyze Chaobaihe river's 45 years annual run-off time series. It solved the problem of inconsequence of single analysis method and inconsistency of various analysis methods.