Electricity grid in-feed from renewable sources: A risk for pumped-storage hydro plants?

The ongoing large-scale deployment of new renewable energy sources (RES), mostly in the form of wind turbines and photovoltaic (PV) units, causes an increasing share of stochastic electricity in-feed, which inevitably has impacts on electricity spot markets. In this paper, an analysis of the impacts of RES in-feeds on the spot market price spread as well as its volatility is presented. The potential risk that these impacts on spot prices may pose for the business model of pumped-storage hydro plants is discussed. Furthermore, the dependency of spot prices on wind turbine and PV electricity in-feeds are studied. The presented analysis focuses on the situation in Germany with its, in relative and absolute terms, high share of stochastic electricity in-feed and its mature spot market.

[1]  M. Nicolosi,et al.  The Impact of an increasing share of RES-E on the Conventional Power Market — The Example of Germany , 2009 .

[2]  Christine M. Anderson-Cook,et al.  Book review: quantitative risk management: concepts, techniques and tools, revised edition, by A.F. McNeil, R. Frey and P. Embrechts. Princeton University Press, 2015, ISBN 978-0-691-16627-8, xix + 700 pp. , 2017, Extremes.

[3]  Jeff Tayman,et al.  On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecast accuracy , 1999 .

[4]  Prachi Patel Germany leads the PV market–for now [The Data] , 2011 .

[5]  Ren Renewables 2019 Global Status Report , 2012 .

[6]  G. Casella,et al.  Statistical Inference , 2003, Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining.

[7]  Lea Bl Power Prices - A Regime-Switching Spot/Forward Price Model with Kim Filter Estimation , 2008 .

[8]  Florian Herzog,et al.  Robust Calculation and Parameter Estimation of the Hourly Price Forward Curve , 2011 .

[9]  F. Genoese,et al.  Occurrence of negative prices on the German spot market for electricity and their influence on balancing power markets , 2010, 2010 7th International Conference on the European Energy Market.

[10]  M. Genoese,et al.  The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany , 2008 .

[11]  R. Koenker,et al.  The Gaussian hare and the Laplacian tortoise: computability of squared-error versus absolute-error estimators , 1997 .

[12]  Freyr Sverrisson,et al.  Renewables 2014 : global status report , 2014 .