Bayesian inference and model selection in latent class logit models with parameter constraints: An application to market segmentation

Latent class models have recently drawn considerable attention among many researchers and practitioners as a class of useful tools for capturing heterogeneity across different segments in a target market or population. In this paper, we consider a latent class logit model with parameter constraints and deal with two important issues in the latent class models--parameter estimation and selection of an appropriate number of classes--within a Bayesian framework. A simple Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed for sample generation from the posterior distribution of unknown parameters. Using the Gibbs output, we propose a method for determining an appropriate number of the latent classes. A real-world marketing example as an application for market segmentation is provided to illustrate the proposed method.

[1]  Gary J. Russell,et al.  A Probabilistic Choice Model for Market Segmentation and Elasticity Structure , 1989 .

[2]  Wayne S. DeSarbo,et al.  A Latent Structure Double Hurdle Regression Model for Exploring Heterogeneity in Consumer Search Patterns , 1998 .

[3]  Wayne S. DeSarbo,et al.  A latent class probit model for analyzing pick any/N data , 1991 .

[4]  C. Clogg,et al.  Discrete Latent Variable Models. , 1994 .

[5]  W. DeSarbo,et al.  A maximum likelihood methodology for clusterwise linear regression , 1988 .

[6]  S. Chib Marginal Likelihood from the Gibbs Output , 1995 .

[7]  L. A. Goodman Exploratory latent structure analysis using both identifiable and unidentifiable models , 1974 .

[8]  Adrian E. Raftery,et al.  Hypothesis testing and model selection , 1996 .

[9]  George B. Macready,et al.  A Simulation Study of the Difference Chi-Square Statistic for Comparing Latent Class Models Under Violation of Regularity Conditions , 1989 .

[10]  C. Robert,et al.  Computational and Inferential Difficulties with Mixture Posterior Distributions , 2000 .

[11]  Anton K. Formann,et al.  Constrained latent class models: Theory and applications , 1985 .

[12]  H. Akaike A new look at the statistical model identification , 1974 .

[13]  M. Stephens Bayesian analysis of mixture models with an unknown number of components- an alternative to reversible jump methods , 2000 .

[14]  Adrian F. M. Smith,et al.  Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities , 1990 .

[15]  H. Hoijtink Constrained Latent Class Analysis Using the Gibbs Sampler and Posterior Predictive P-values: Applications to Educational Testing , 1998 .

[16]  H. Bozdogan Model selection and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC): The general theory and its analytical extensions , 1987 .

[17]  Man-Suk Oh Estimation of posterior density functions from a posterior sample , 1999 .

[18]  S. Chib,et al.  Bayesian analysis of binary and polychotomous response data , 1993 .

[19]  Kamel Jedidi,et al.  A maximum likelihood method for latent class regression involving a censored dependent variable , 1993 .