Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety – The case study of fresh produce supply chain

The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates the need for scientific research and development of new and/or improved tools, techniques and practices to adapt the current risk management systems. In this paper, a conceptual research approach is presented to analyse the complexity of the climate change and globalization challenge on the fresh produce supply chain taken as a case study. The factors which affect the vulnerability of the fresh produce chain demand a multidisciplinary research approach. The proposed knowledge-based modelling system is believed to be a most appropriate way to identify problems and to offer solutions to monitor and prevent microbiological food safety risks during all phases of food production and supply. To explore the potential impact of climate change and globalization, baseline information can be obtained by surveillance and performance measurement of implemented food safety management systems. Simulation of climate change scenarios and the logistic chain of fresh produce, along with mathematical models to optimize packaging technology to maintain quality and safety of fresh produce are tools to provide insights in the complex dynamic ecosystem. They are the basis for elaboration of risk assessment studies to scientifically support management options and decisions to new microbiological threats related to globalization and climate change in the fresh produce supply chain. This research concept as such will contribute to develop strategies in order to guarantee the (microbiological) food safety of fresh produce on the long term.