A Sliding Window Technique for Calculating System LOLP Contributions of Wind Power Plants

Conventional electric power generation models do not typically recognize the probabilistic nature of the power variations from wind plants. Most models allow for an accurate hourly representation of wind power output, but do not incorporate any probabilistic assessment of whether the given level of wind power will vary from its expected value. The technique presented in this paper uses this variation to calculate an effective forced-outage rate for wind power plants (EFORW). Depending on the type of wind regime undergoing evaluation, the length and diurnal characteristics of a sliding time window can be adjusted so that the EFORW is based on an appropriate time scale. The algorithm allows us to calculate the loss-of-load probability (LOLP) on an hourly basis, fully incorporating the variability of the wind resource into the calculation. This makes it possible to obtain a more accurate assessment of reliability of systems that include wind generation when system reliability is a concern .