Deterministic Ensemble Forecasts Using Gene-Expression Programming*

Abstract A method called gene-expression programming (GEP), which uses symbolic regression to form a nonlinear combination of ensemble NWP forecasts, is introduced. From a population of competing and evolving algorithms (each of which can create a different combination of NWP ensemble members), GEP uses computational natural selection to find the algorithm that maximizes a weather verification fitness function. The resulting best algorithm yields a deterministic ensemble forecast (DEF) that could serve as an alternative to the traditional ensemble average. Motivated by the difficulty in forecasting montane precipitation, the ability of GEP to produce bias-corrected short-range 24-h-accumulated precipitation DEFs is tested at 24 weather stations in mountainous southwestern Canada. As input to GEP are 11 limited-area ensemble members from three different NWP models at four horizontal grid spacings. The data consist of 198 quality controlled observation–forecast date pairs during the two fall–spring rainy se...

[1]  Alex J. Cannon,et al.  Probabilistic Multisite Precipitation Downscaling by an Expanded Bernoulli–Gamma Density Network , 2008 .

[2]  David J. Stensrud,et al.  Bias-Corrected Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Near-Surface Variables during the 2005/06 Cool Season , 2007 .

[3]  Ramesh Vellore,et al.  Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting of Wintertime Storms in the Sierra Nevada: Sensitivity to the Microphysical Parameterization and Horizontal Resolution , 2005 .

[4]  Chermelle Engel,et al.  Operational Consensus Forecasts , 2005 .

[5]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  Ozone ensemble forecasts: 2. A Kalman filter predictor bias correction , 2006 .

[6]  Chris Snyder,et al.  Ensemble Forecasting in the Short to Medium Range: Report from a Workshop , 2000 .

[7]  M. Desgagné,et al.  The Canadian MC2: A Semi-Lagrangian, Semi-Implicit Wideband Atmospheric Model Suited for Finescale Process Studies and Simulation , 1997 .

[8]  Robert T. Pennock,et al.  The evolutionary origin of complex features , 2003, Nature.

[9]  D. Stensrud,et al.  Evaluation of a Short-Range Multimodel Ensemble System , 2001 .

[10]  David J. Stensrud,et al.  Prediction of Near-Surface Variables at Independent Locations from a Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecasting System , 2006 .

[11]  松山 洋.  「Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences(2nd edition), International Geophysics Series 91」, Daniel S. Wilks著, Academic Press, 2005年11月, 648頁, $94.95, ISBN978-0-12-751966-1(本だな) , 2010 .

[12]  Thomas M. Hamill,et al.  Verification of Eta–RSM Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts , 1997 .

[13]  Roland B. Stull,et al.  Hydrometeorological Accuracy Enhancement via Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Forecasts in Complex Terrain , 2008 .

[14]  J. Hacker,et al.  A Practical Approach to Sequential Estimation of Systematic Error on Near-Surface Mesoscale Grids , 2005 .

[15]  David J. Stensrud,et al.  Gridpoint Predictions of High Temperature from a Mesoscale Model , 1996 .

[16]  Cândida Ferreira,et al.  Gene Expression Programming: Mathematical Modeling by an Artificial Intelligence , 2014, Studies in Computational Intelligence.

[17]  Soroosh Sorooshian,et al.  Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts with an Artificial Neural Network , 2007 .

[18]  W. J. Steenburgh,et al.  Strengths and Weaknesses of MOS, Running-Mean Bias Removal, and Kalman Filter Techniques for Improving Model Forecasts over the Western United States , 2007 .

[19]  David S. Richardson,et al.  ON THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF ENSEMBLE BASED WEATHER FORECASTS , 2001 .

[20]  John H. Holland,et al.  Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems: An Introductory Analysis with Applications to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence , 1992 .

[21]  Brian A. Colle,et al.  Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System over the Northeast United States , 2007 .

[22]  Bjarne Hansen.  A Fuzzy Logic-Based Analog Forecasting System for Ceiling and Visibility , 2007 .

[23]  David J. Stensrud,et al.  Short-Range Ensemble Predictions of 2-m Temperature and Dewpoint Temperature over New England , 2003 .

[24]  A. Raftery,et al.  Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles , 2005 .

[25]  Christopher K. Wikle,et al.  Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Predictability , 2005, Technometrics.

[26]  Brian A. Colle,et al.  Verification of Extratropical Cyclones within the NCEP Operational Models. Part II: The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System , 2009 .

[27]  John R. Koza,et al.  Genetic Programming IV: Routine Human-Competitive Machine Intelligence , 2003 .

[28]  P. Nordin.  Genetic Programming III - Darwinian Invention and Problem Solving , 1999 .

[29]  G. Grell,et al.  A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) , 1994 .

[30]  Clifford F. Mass,et al.  Aspects of Effective Mesoscale, Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting , 2005 .

[31]  D. Richardson.  Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system , 2000 .

[32]  W. Briggs.  Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences , 2007 .

[33]  Yulia R. Gel,et al.  Comparative Analysis of the Local Observation-Based (LOB) Method and the Nonparametric Regression-Based Method for Gridded Bias Correction in Mesoscale Weather Forecasting , 2007 .

[34]  John R. Koza,et al.  Genetic programming 2 - automatic discovery of reusable programs , 1994, Complex Adaptive Systems.

[35]  C. Darwin.  On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection: Or, The Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life , 2019 .

[36]  Candida Ferreira.  Gene expression programming , 2006 .

[37]  David J. Stensrud,et al.  Bias‐corrected short‐range ensemble forecasts of near surface variables , 2005 .

[38]  Cândida Ferreira,et al.  Gene Expression Programming: A New Adaptive Algorithm for Solving Problems , 2001, Complex Syst..

[39]  David E. Goldberg,et al.  Genetic Algorithms in Search Optimization and Machine Learning , 1988 .

[40]  Jordan G. Powers,et al.  A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2 , 2005 .

[41]  C. Adami,et al.  Introduction To Artificial Life , 1997, IEEE Trans. Evol. Comput..

[42]  R. Stull,et al.  Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part I: Meteorological Evaluation , 2008 .

[43]  John R. Koza,et al.  Genetic programming - on the programming of computers by means of natural selection , 1993, Complex adaptive systems.

[44]  John R. Koza,et al.  Genetic Programming III: Darwinian Invention & Problem Solving , 1999 .

[45]  D. Stensrud,et al.  Reliable Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from a Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System , 2007 .

[46]  Nichael Lynn Cramer,et al.  A Representation for the Adaptive Generation of Simple Sequential Programs , 1985, ICGA.

[47]  S. M. Bozic.  Digital and Kalman Filtering: An Introduction to Discrete-Time Filtering and Optimum Linear Estimation , 1980 .