MARITIME PIRACY IN MALACCA STRAIT AND SOUTH CHINA SEA: TESTING THE DETERRENCE AND REACTANCE MODELS

In this article, I used series hazard modeling and multivariate logistic models to test the relative strengths of deterrence and reactance models for the risk of piracy attacks under a military intervention and several major events. I found significant evidence for the conclusion that the rate of piracy attacks reduced significantly when direct controls are implemented to reduce the environmental opportunities of crime, and when certainty effect becomes stronger. The only exception is when pirates are highly motivated. Also, my results support the reactance perspective when the odds of successful attacks significantly increase after anti-piracy military intervention was introduced.

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