Advances and challenges in flash flood warnings

Advances in meteorological, hydrological and engineering sciences are fast generating a range of new methodologies for forecasting weather and flood events, including ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and new hydrodynamic models. These advances are in addition to those already made in weather radar and quantitative precipitation forecasting which have enhanced flood warning lead time potential; in integrated real-time monitoring and modeling; and in long-term models. Each of these advances presents new challenges within the complex information and data flows which now exist between actors generating forecasts and actors using them (Fig. 1). At the same time, the natural, physical and engineering sciences, which are generating the technical advances noted above, are being challenged by social science. The social science paradigm focuses on human perceptions of risk information and the under-estimated complexities of communicating risk between actors, and stresses that uncertainty must be managed rather than eradicated. It has already contributed much to a broader and deeper understanding of human behaviour in the face of hazard warnings. It promises to contribute further in addressing the risk communication and response issues now raised by the new wave of technical advances.