On the competitiveness of electric driving in France: Impact of driving patterns

Abstract The environmental issues in the transport sector are numerous and CO2 capture is not even plausible for vehicles at the moment. This report describes a number of different emergent power train technologies (ICE, BEV, PHEV, FCEV) before providing an inter-comparison of these technologies within a technical and economic context. The economical benefits are discussed in terms of the “Difference of Total Cost of Ownership” (DTCO) and take: electric driving distances, energy (fuel, electricity, hydrogen) prices, batteries and fuel cells costs. To simulate electric driving distances, the model uses several functional parameters such as the battery range and the ‘range anxiety’ based on the assumption of one recharge per day. The potential electric driving distances are evaluated according to the segmentation statistics of daily trips. The results show the yearly mileages, as well as the range and cost of batteries and fuel cells, together with their relative impact on the DTCO and on the competitiveness of electric vehicles. The price of electric vehicles remains high with strong dependency on the battery׳s capacity, but the benefits in terms of fuel cost savings can be considerable. The price of electricity is currently noticeably lower than petroleum-based fuels, which balances the high costs of the batteries. 50% or more of LDV yearly mileages can be electric-driven, even for limited battery ranges (ca. under 50 km). There are stakes for the battery costs (competitiveness under €215/kWh) and lifetimes, while the low battery ranges (100 km in our case) provide the best margins. As regards FCEVs, the hydrogen target price at the pump should be achievable (less than €6.5/kg) with reasonable gasoline prices (€1.7/liter at the pump) and fuel cell costs (€20/kW). CO2 taxes and ICE efficiency gains will lead to opposite impacts of the H2 target prices at the pump.