Securing the Border from Invasives: Robust Inspections Under Severe Uncertainty

Two important features of agricultural quarantine inspections of shipping containers for invasive species at U.S. ports of entry are the general absence of economic considerations and the severe uncertainty that surrounds invasive species introductions. In this article, we propose and illustrate a method for determining an inspection monitoring protocol that addresses both issues. An inspection monitoring protocol is developed that is robust in maximizing the set of uncertain outcomes over which an economic performance criterion is achieved. The framework is applied to derive an alternative to Agricultural Quarantine Inspection (AQI) for shipments of fruits and vegetables as currently practiced at ports of entry in the United States.

[1]  L. Moffitt,et al.  Economic analysis of an areawide program for biological control of the alfalfa weevil , 1995 .

[2]  Y. Ben-Haim.  Info-Gap Decision Theory: Decisions Under Severe Uncertainty , 2006 .

[3]  Scott Cogan,et al.  A robust model-based test planning procedure , 2005 .

[4]  Michael A. McCarthy,et al.  Robust decisions for declaring eradication of invasive species , 2009 .

[5]  Keith W. Hipel,et al.  The graph model for conflict resolution with information-gap uncertainty in preferences , 2002, Appl. Math. Comput..

[6]  Craig D. Osteen,et al.  Prioritizing Invasive Species Threats Under Uncertainty , 2006, Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

[7]  Brendan A. Wintle,et al.  Uncertainty analysis favours selection of spatially aggregated reserve networks , 2006 .

[8]  Chad Settle,et al.  Modeling Native-Exotic Species within Yellowstone Lake , 2002 .

[9]  Edward B. Barbier,et al.  Biological invasion risks and the public good: an economic perspective , 2002 .

[10]  L R Carrasco,et al.  Optimal and robust control of invasive alien species spreading in homogeneous landscapes , 2010, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[11]  David Zilberman,et al.  The Economics of Controlling Insect‐Transmitted Plant Diseases , 2002 .

[12]  Y. Ben-Haim.  Value-at-risk with info-gap uncertainty , 2005 .

[13]  A. Lansink,et al.  A model of optimal import phytosanitary inspection under capacity constraint , 2008 .

[14]  Growth With Endogenous Risk of Biological Invasion , 2004 .

[15]  D. Pimentel,et al.  Environmental and Economic Costs of Nonindigenous Species in the United States , 2000 .

[16]  John K. Stranlund,et al.  Inspections to Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty , 2005 .

[17]  Yakov Ben-Haim,et al.  Robustness of Risk Maps and Survey Networks to Knowledge Gaps About a New Invasive Pest , 2010, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[18]  Y. Ben-Haim,et al.  Info‐Gap Robust‐Satisficing Model of Foraging Behavior: Do Foragers Optimize or Satisfice? , 2005, The American Naturalist.

[19]  I. Gilboa,et al.  Maxmin Expected Utility with Non-Unique Prior , 1989 .

[20]  L Joe Moffitt,et al.  Robust detection protocols for uncertain introductions of invasive species. , 2008, Journal of environmental management.

[21]  Peter Whittle,et al.  Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: the case study of Barrow Island. , 2009, Journal of environmental management.

[22]  J. Shogren.  Risk reduction strategies against the 'explosive invader' , 2000 .

[23]  L. J. Moffitt,et al.  Robust inspection for invasive species with a limited budget , 2007 .

[24]  Yakov Ben-Haim,et al.  Price-Based vs. Quantity-Based Environmental Regulation Under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Robust Satisficing Perspective , 2006, Journal of environmental management.

[25]  Donald W. Katzner.  Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models , 1998 .

[26]  Hugh P Possingham,et al.  Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design. , 2006, Ecology letters.

[27]  Santanu Roy,et al.  The Economics of Controlling a Stochastic Biological Invasion , 2002 .

[28]  Yakov Ben-Haim,et al.  Reconciling Uncertain Costs and Benefits in Bayes Nets for Invasive Species Management , 2010, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[29]  Jr. Hanna Stair,et al.  Quantitative Analysis for Management , 1982 .

[30]  L. Moffitt,et al.  The economics of agricultural pest control , 1981 .

[31]  Edward B. Bradley,et al.  The economics of agricultural pest control : an annotated bibliography, 1960-80 / , 1981 .

[32]  G. Cornelis van Kooten,et al.  Uncertainty, Economics, and the Spread of an Invasive Plant Species , 2002 .

[33]  Christopher Costello,et al.  Avoiding invasives: trade-related policies for controlling unintentional exotic species introductions☆ , 2004 .

[34]  R. Horan,et al.  Biological Pollution Prevention Strategies under Ignorance:The Case of Invasive Species , 2002 .

[35]  The economics of biological invasions , 2000 .