Uncertainty quantification of a graphite nitridation experiment using a Bayesian approach

Abstract In this paper, a stochastic system based Bayesian approach is applied to estimate different model parameters and hence quantify the uncertainty of a graphite nitridation experiment. The Bayesian approach is robust due to its ability to characterize modeling uncertainties associated with the underlying system and is rigorous due to its exclusive foundation on the axioms of probability theory. We choose an experiment by Zhang et al. [1] whose main objective is to measure the reaction efficiency for the active nitridation of graphite by atomic nitrogen. To obtain the primary physical quantity of interest, we need to model and estimate the uncertainty of a number of other physical processes associated with the experimental setup. We use the Bayesian method to obtain posterior probability distributions of all the parameters relevant to the experiment while taking into account uncertainties in the inputs and the modeling errors. We use a recently developed stochastic simulation algorithm which allows for efficient sampling in the high-dimensional parameter space. We show that the predicted reaction efficiency of the graphite nitridation and its uncertainty is ∼3.1 ± 1.0 × 10−3 that is slightly larger than the ones deterministically obtained by Zhang et al. [1] .