Yangtze Delta, China: Taihu lake-level variation since the 1950s, response to sea-level rise and human impact

Abstract Hydrological records collected from water gauge stations since the 1950s demonstrate that the Taihu lake level is rising. The average rate of the lake-level rise is 0.4–1.1 mm/year during the non-flood season, resulting directly from a rise in sea level. High rates of 3.0–5.0 mm/year of rise are even recorded during the wet season. This indicates increasing human activities such as reclamation, sluicing and embanking, which significantly hinder the expulsion of extra lake water to the coast shortly after a rainfall. Generally, the lake level of the western inlet is higher than that of the eastern outlet. However, the lake-level difference between the west and east has been diminished annually from ∼10–15 cm in the 1950s to <3 cm at the present time. During non-flood seasons, the lake-level difference even appears to be reversed, indicating a retrogression of the lake flow from east to west. It is predicted that the Taihu drainage basin will lose much of its natural water-expelling ability in the next 50 years as the sea level continues to rise, and retrogression will likely occur during the flood season in the near future.