Variability of External Load Measures During Soccer Match Play: Influence of Player Fitness or Pacing?

PURPOSE The aims of this study were to examine the variability of selected external load metrics within 15-minute intervals during soccer match play and examine their relationship with players' high-intensity intermittent fitness. METHODS A total of 18 male soccer players were monitored for their external load metrics during 26 matches, which included total distance, high-metabolic-load distance, and mechanical work (defined as the sum of accelerations and decelerations >3 m2). Additionally, players completed the 30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test. RESULTS Total distance had lower coefficients of variation than high-metabolic-load distance and mechanical work (effect size [ES]: 5.2 to 6.4; very large). Within-player Δ-15min showed moderate to large decreases (ES: -0.7 to -1.6) and increases (ES: 0.9 to 1.8) in absolute and coefficient-of-variation values, respectively. Large relationships (r = .55 to .61) were observed between the Intermittent Fitness Test and 15-minmean and 15-minbest in all selected external load metrics. However, small to moderate (0.27 to 0.41) associations were observed between the Intermittent Fitness Test and Δ-15min in selected external load metrics. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that players with relatively lower intermittent running capacity might show lower variability during matches, as evidenced by smaller reductions in high-intensity actions during the final 15 minutes. We attribute these observations to players' possessing better pacing strategies.