Response surface modelling of monte carlo fire data

The results of a large-scale Monte-Carlo simulation of a computer fire model are summarised in the form of a simple response surface for each of a number of subranges of the input parameters. The subranges are automatically determined through the use of a powerful modern regression methodology. A brief summary of the first-order second moment reliability index method is given. It is shown that the particular form of the obtained response surface allows the reliability index to be easily calculated. The reliability index and corresponding probability of failure are obtained for a particular example and the result confirmed by Monte-Carlo simulation.

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