Analysis and Evaluation

This chapter describes the analysis and evaluation of physical protection systems (PPS) design. After the PPS objectives have been established and a new or upgraded design has been developed, it is necessary to analyze the effectiveness of the design in meeting the objectives. A rigorous quantitative analysis is required for protection of assets with unacceptably high consequence of loss, even if the probability of an adversary attack is low. A qualitative analysis is more suitable when evaluating lower security applications. Analysis of the PPS establishes the assumptions under which a design was formed, relate system performance to threats and assets, and allow a cost–benefit decision to be made. A PPS is a complex configuration of detection, delay, and response elements that can be analyzed to determine system effectiveness. The analysis helps in identifying system deficiencies, evaluating improvements, and enables cost-versus effectiveness comparisons. Quantitative analysis is used for assuring protection of critical, high-value assets where testing data is available, either from performance tests run on the PPS or from tests run in the laboratory.