The Catastrophe over Jammu and Kashmir in September 2014: A Meteorological Observational Analysis

An observational analysis of the catastrophic rainstorm during 4-6 September 2014 over Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) presented in this study shows that the event was unprecedented in terms of the 24, 48 and 72 h accumulated rainfall. The 24 h accumulated rainfall exceeded the previously determined one-day severe rainstorm limits of 20 cm for a number of stations on 5 and 6 September 2014. Weekly cumulative rainfall (4-10 September 2014) exceeded the average rainfall of the entire monsoon season (June-September) in 6 out 18 districts of the state. A number of stations recorded all-time highest 24, 48 and 72 h accumulated rainfall during the week. Analysis of short-duration intensity of rainfall shows that the heaviest rain-rate (35 mm/h) was recorded over Kawa (Udhampur district). The rain-rate remained less than 20 mm/h at other stations. As Kawa is on the windward side of the Pir Panjal Range, orography seems to have played a significant role. The analysis of synoptic conditions leading to unprecedented rainfall shows that the rains were caused by the interaction of the westwardmoving monsoon low pressure area across central and northwest India and a eastward-moving deep trough in the mid-tropospheric westerlies. The additional low pressure areas that formed over Saurashtra and Kutch on 3 September 2014 and over head Bay of Bengal on 5 September 2014, ensured the vigour of the event was maintained through strong wind and moisture flux in J&K. NWP models could capture heavy rains over J&K only in day 1 forecast.