EFFECTS OF REDUCTION OF PUBLIC TRANSPORT LEVELS IN RURAL AREAS; A SIMULATION STUDY

The study presented in this paper is part of a larger research program, that was initiated by the Dutch Ministry of Transport, and studies the relationship between public transport provisions and life styles in rural areas. The effects of three hypothetical reductions in service on the activity patterns of inhabitants of small villages with - at the moment - good public transport, were simulated with the computer program CARLA. This program is based on a household level activity model, which aims to simulate the mechanisms whereby a bus passenger assesses the convenience of a new bus service. The three tested timetables were: (1) a timetable, constructed according to the system for standardizing the level of service provisions in regional transport (nvs), based on a reduction in passenger demand of 50 per cent; (2) a minimum service with four runs per day and (3) a service, using the same number of runs as the 50 per cent timetable, but based on the preferences for departure and arrival times of public transport users. The results of the simulation were discussed with a small number of respondents. The 50 per cent service cuts did produce some inconvenience for bus users and their households, but most respondents could maintain all their current activities. The specific timing of the buses seems to be important: when asked to choose between the 50 per cent service and the 50 per cent preference service, most respondents chose the 50 per cent preference service and motivated their choice with the better timing of the buses. The minimum service had a far greater effect on the life styles of the respondents; most respondents could not use this bus service without major changes in their activity patterns. Consequently, a substantial number of them would switch modes. The most affected are the elderly and, to a lesser extent, the school children. For the covering abstract of the conference see IRRD 276520. (Author/TRRL)