How Well Does an FV3‐Based Model Predict Precipitation at a Convection‐Allowing Resolution? Results From CAPS Forecasts for the 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed With Different Physics Combinations

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite‐Volume Cubed‐Sphere (FV3) numerical forecast model was chosen in late 2016 by the National Weather Service (NWS) to serve as the dynamic core of the Next‐Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). The operational Global Forecasting System (GFS) physics suite implemented in FV3, however, was not necessarily suitable for convective‐scale prediction. We implemented several advanced physics schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model within FV3 and ran 10 forecasts with combinations of five planetary boundary layer and two microphysics (MP) schemes, with an ~3.5‐km convection‐allowing grid two‐way nested within am ~13‐km grid spacing global grid during the 2018 Spring Forecasting Experiment at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Hazardous Weather Testbed. Objective verification results show that the Thompson MP scheme slightly outperforms the National Severe Storms Laboratory MP scheme in precipitation forecast skill, while no planetary boundary layer scheme clearly stands out. The skill of FV3 is similar to that of the more‐established WRF at a similar resolution. These results establish the viability of the FV3 dynamic core for convective‐scale forecasting as part of the single‐core unification of the NWS modeling suite.

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