Games under Ambiguous Payoffs and Optimistic Attitudes

In real-life games, the consequence or payoff of a strategy profile and a player's belief about the consequence of a strategy profile are often ambiguous, and players may have different optimistic attitudes with respect to a strategy profile. To handle this problem, this paper proposes a decision rule using the Hurwicz criterion and Dempster-Shafer theory. Based on this rule, we introduce a new kind of games, called ambiguous games, and propose a solution concept that is appropriate for this sort of games. Moreover, we also study how the beliefs regarding possible payoffs and optimistic attitudes may affect the solutions of such a game. To illustrate our model, we provide an analysis of a scenario concerning allocating resource of defending and attacking in military contexts.

[1]  A. Snow Ambiguity and the value of information , 2010 .

[2]  Thomas M. Strat,et al.  Decision analysis using belief functions , 1990, Int. J. Approx. Reason..

[3]  Wei Xiong,et al.  Games with Ambiguous Payoffs and Played by Ambiguity and Regret Minimising Players , 2012, Australasian Conference on Artificial Intelligence.

[4]  Ting-Yu Chen,et al.  Optimistic and pessimistic decision making with dissonance reduction using interval-valued fuzzy sets , 2011, Inf. Sci..

[5]  Justo Puerto,et al.  Pareto-optimal security strategies in matrix games with fuzzy payoffs , 2011, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[6]  Sophie Bade Ambiguous Act Equilibria , 2010 .

[7]  Glenn Shafer,et al.  Languages and Designs for Probability Judgment , 1985, Cogn. Sci..

[8]  Moussa Larbani,et al.  Solving bimatrix games with fuzzy payoffs by introducing Nature as a third player , 2009, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[9]  D. Ellsberg Decision, probability, and utility: Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms , 1961 .

[10]  David Schmeidleis SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED UTILITY WITHOUT ADDITIVITY , 1989 .

[11]  Wei Xiong,et al.  On Solving Some Paradoxes Using the Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator Based Decision Model , 2014, Int. J. Intell. Syst..

[12]  Wei Xiong,et al.  An Axiomatic Foundation for Yager's Decision Theory , 2014, Int. J. Intell. Syst..

[13]  James A. R. Marshall,et al.  Is optimism optimal? Functional causes of apparent behavioural biases , 2012, Behavioural Processes.

[14]  Klaus Ritzberger On games under expected utility with rank dependent probabilities , 1996 .

[15]  Ying-Wu Chen,et al.  Fuzzy Group Decision Making for Multiobjective Problems: Tradeoff between Consensus and Robustness , 2013, J. Appl. Math..

[16]  J. Nash,et al.  NON-COOPERATIVE GAMES , 1951, Classics in Game Theory.

[17]  Kin Chung Lo,et al.  Equilibrium in Beliefs under Uncertainty , 1996 .

[18]  Atsushi Kajii,et al.  Incomplete Information Games with Multiple Priors , 2005 .

[19]  Kenneth J. Arrow,et al.  Studies in Resource Allocation Processes: Appendix: An optimality criterion for decision-making under ignorance , 1977 .

[20]  John C. Harsanyi,et al.  Games with Incomplete Information Played by "Bayesian" Players, I-III: Part I. The Basic Model& , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[21]  Massimo Marinacci,et al.  Ambiguous Games , 2000, Games Econ. Behav..

[22]  David Kelsey,et al.  Are the treasures of game theory ambiguous? , 2011 .

[23]  Romain Guillaume,et al.  Decision Making under Scenario Uncertainty in a Requirement Planning , 2012, IPMU.

[24]  Stef Tijs,et al.  Fuzzy interval cooperative games , 2011, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[25]  Roman Kozhan,et al.  Non-additive anonymous games , 2010, Int. J. Game Theory.

[26]  Giuseppe De Marco,et al.  Beliefs correspondences and equilibria in ambiguous games , 2012, Int. J. Intell. Syst..

[27]  Isaac Levi,et al.  Why indeterminate probability is rational , 2009, J. Appl. Log..

[28]  Wei Xiong,et al.  A Model for Decision Making with Missing, Imprecise, and Uncertain Evaluations of Multiple Criteria , 2012, Int. J. Intell. Syst..

[29]  H. Gintis The Bounds of Reason: Game Theory and the Unification of the Behavioral Sciences , 2014 .

[30]  Gildas Jeantet,et al.  Optimizing the Hurwicz Criterion in Decision Trees with Imprecise Probabilities , 2009, ADT.

[31]  Glenn Shafer,et al.  A Mathematical Theory of Evidence , 2020, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence.