Traffic Flow Prediction With Big Data: A Deep Learning Approach

Accurate and timely traffic flow information is important for the successful deployment of intelligent transportation systems. Over the last few years, traffic data have been exploding, and we have truly entered the era of big data for transportation. Existing traffic flow prediction methods mainly use shallow traffic prediction models and are still unsatisfying for many real-world applications. This situation inspires us to rethink the traffic flow prediction problem based on deep architecture models with big traffic data. In this paper, a novel deep-learning-based traffic flow prediction method is proposed, which considers the spatial and temporal correlations inherently. A stacked autoencoder model is used to learn generic traffic flow features, and it is trained in a greedy layerwise fashion. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a deep architecture model is applied using autoencoders as building blocks to represent traffic flow features for prediction. Moreover, experiments demonstrate that the proposed method for traffic flow prediction has superior performance.

[1]  Simon J. Doran,et al.  Stacked Autoencoders for Unsupervised Feature Learning and Multiple Organ Detection in a Pilot Study Using 4D Patient Data , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[2]  Billy M. Williams,et al.  Comparison of parametric and nonparametric models for traffic flow forecasting , 2002 .

[3]  Shiliang Sun,et al.  Neural network multitask learning for traffic flow forecasting , 2008, 2008 IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence).

[4]  Moshe Levin,et al.  ON FORECASTING FREEWAY OCCUPANCIES AND VOLUMES (ABRIDGMENT) , 1980 .

[5]  E. Chung,et al.  SHORT TERM TRAFFIC FLOW PREDICTION , 2001 .

[6]  H. Liu,et al.  Type-2 fuzzy logic approach for short-term traffic forecasting , 2006 .

[7]  Rasmus Berg Palm,et al.  Prediction as a candidate for learning deep hierarchical models of data , 2012 .

[8]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Reducing the Dimensionality of Data with Neural Networks , 2006, Science.

[9]  Yin Wang,et al.  The retrieval of intra-day trend and its influence on traffic prediction , 2012 .

[10]  Shiliang Sun,et al.  A bayesian network approach to traffic flow forecasting , 2006, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[11]  Daniel B. Fambro,et al.  Application of Subset Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Short-Term Freeway Traffic Volume Forecasting , 1999 .

[12]  Mark Dougherty,et al.  A REVIEW OF NEURAL NETWORKS APPLIED TO TRANSPORT , 1995 .

[13]  Shiliang Sun,et al.  Variational Inference for Infinite Mixtures of Gaussian Processes With Applications to Traffic Flow Prediction , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[14]  Eleni I. Vlahogianni,et al.  Short‐term traffic forecasting: Overview of objectives and methods , 2004 .

[15]  Mark Dougherty,et al.  SHOULD WE USE NEURAL NETWORKS OR STATISTICAL MODELS FOR SHORT TERM MOTORWAY TRAFFIC FORECASTING , 1997 .

[16]  Biswajit Basu,et al.  Multivariate Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Using Time-Series Analysis , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[17]  Billy M. Williams.  Multivariate Vehicular Traffic Flow Prediction: Evaluation of ARIMAX Modeling , 2001 .

[18]  Gary A. Davis,et al.  Nonparametric Regression and Short‐Term Freeway Traffic Forecasting , 1991 .

[19]  Yaroslav Bulatov,et al.  Multi-digit Number Recognition from Street View Imagery using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks , 2013, ICLR.

[20]  Yee Whye Teh,et al.  A Fast Learning Algorithm for Deep Belief Nets , 2006, Neural Computation.

[21]  Said M. Easa,et al.  Supervised Weighting-Online Learning Algorithm for Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[22]  Pawan Lingras,et al.  Short-term traffic prediction on different types of roads with genetically designed regression and time delay neural network models , 2005 .

[23]  Yoshua Bengio,et al.  Greedy Layer-Wise Training of Deep Networks , 2006, NIPS.

[24]  Fei-Yue Wang,et al.  Data-Driven Intelligent Transportation Systems: A Survey , 2011, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[25]  J. W. C. van Lint,et al.  Short Term Traffic Prediction Models , 2007 .

[26]  S. Mehdi Hashemi,et al.  Modeling and Forecasting the Urban Volume Using Stochastic Differential Equations , 2014, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[27]  Billy M. Williams,et al.  Modeling and Forecasting Vehicular Traffic Flow as a Seasonal ARIMA Process: Theoretical Basis and Empirical Results , 2003, Journal of Transportation Engineering.

[28]  G. Duncan,et al.  High performance microscopic simulation for traffic forecasting , 1997 .

[29]  Manoranjan Parida,et al.  Short Term Traffic Flow Prediction for a Non Urban Highway Using Artificial Neural Network , 2013 .

[30]  Thomas Urbanik,et al.  Short-Term Freeway Traffic Volume Forecasting Using Radial Basis Function Neural Network , 1998 .

[31]  Matthew G. Karlaftis,et al.  A multivariate state space approach for urban traffic flow modeling and prediction , 2003 .

[32]  Gurcan Comert,et al.  An Online Change-Point-Based Model for Traffic Parameter Prediction , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[33]  Bin Ran.  Using traffic prediction models for providing predictive traveller information , 2000, Int. J. Technol. Manag..

[34]  Yoshua. Bengio,et al.  Learning Deep Architectures for AI , 2007, Found. Trends Mach. Learn..

[35]  Y. Kamarianakis,et al.  Forecasting Traffic Flow Conditions in an Urban Network: Comparison of Multivariate and Univariate Approaches , 2003 .

[36]  Henry X. Liu,et al.  Use of Local Linear Regression Model for Short-Term Traffic Forecasting , 2003 .

[37]  Eleni I. Vlahogianni,et al.  Optimized and meta-optimized neural networks for short-term traffic flow prediction: A genetic approach , 2005 .

[38]  Mecit Cetin,et al.  Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction with Regime Switching Models , 2006 .

[39]  I Okutani,et al.  Dynamic prediction of traffic volume through Kalman Filtering , 1984 .

[40]  Bin Ran,et al.  Online Recursive Algorithm for Short-Term Traffic Prediction , 2004 .

[41]  C. L. Philip Chen,et al.  Data-intensive applications, challenges, techniques and technologies: A survey on Big Data , 2014, Inf. Sci..

[42]  Fenghua Zhu,et al.  DynaCAS: Computational Experiments and Decision Support for ITS , 2008, IEEE Intelligent Systems.

[43]  Byoung-Jo Yoon,et al.  Dynamic near-term traffic flow prediction: system- oriented approach based on past experiences , 2012 .

[44]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  AN ON-LINE DYNAMIC TRAFFIC PREDICTION MODEL FOR AN INTER-URBAN MOTORWAY NETWORK , 1995 .

[45]  Hussein Dia,et al.  An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting , 2001, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[46]  Antony Stathopoulos,et al.  Adaptive hybrid fuzzy rule-based system approach for modeling and predicting urban traffic flow , 2008 .

[47]  Amir Hossein Gandomi,et al.  A computational intelligence‐based approach for short‐term traffic flow prediction , 2010, Expert Syst. J. Knowl. Eng..

[48]  Jason Weston,et al.  A unified architecture for natural language processing: deep neural networks with multitask learning , 2008, ICML '08.

[49]  Mascha C. van der Voort,et al.  Combining kohonen maps with arima time series models to forecast traffic flow , 1996 .

[50]  Shing Chung Josh Wong,et al.  Urban traffic flow prediction using a fuzzy-neural approach , 2002 .

[51]  A. R. Cook,et al.  ANALYSIS OF FREEWAY TRAFFIC TIME-SERIES DATA BY USING BOX-JENKINS TECHNIQUES , 1979 .

[52]  Michael J Demetsky,et al.  TRAFFIC FLOW FORECASTING: COMPARISON OF MODELING APPROACHES , 1997 .

[53]  Andrew Y. Ng,et al.  Deep learning for class-generic object detection , 2013, ICLR.

[54]  Man-Chun Tan,et al.  An Aggregation Approach to Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction , 2009, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[55]  N-E El Faouzi.  NONPARAMETRIC TRAFFIC FLOW PREDICTION USING KERNEL ESTIMATOR , 1996 .

[56]  Hashem R Al-Masaeid,et al.  Short-Term Prediction of Traffic Volume in Urban Arterials , 1995 .

[57]  Paolo Frasconi,et al.  Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting: An Experimental Comparison of Time-Series Analysis and Supervised Learning , 2013, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[58]  Der-Horng Lee,et al.  Short-term freeway traffic flow prediction : Bayesian combined neural network approach , 2006 .

[59]  Billy M. Williams,et al.  Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Prediction: Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Models , 1998 .

[60]  Tharam S. Dillon,et al.  Neural-Network-Based Models for Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Using a Hybrid Exponential Smoothing and Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm , 2012, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems.