How Frequently Do Prices Change? Evidence Based on the Micro Data Underlying the Belgian CPI

This paper examines the degree of price rigidity in Belgian consumer prices, using a large database. As to the observed degree of rigidity, the results reveal a substantial amount of heterogeneity, not only across but also within product categories. While prices turn out to be perfectly flexible for some product categories, they tend to be very sticky for others. Each month, nearly 17 p.c. of the consumer prices change on average and the median duration of a price spell is close to 13 months. A substantial subset of our results is compatible with state-dependent pricing, while other results suggest that some timedependency exists as well. The majority of price changes are price increases, but price decreases are not uncommon, except for services. The size of price changes is important. Price changes do not seem to be highly synchronised across price-setters within relatively homogenous product categories. JEL Classification: D21, D40, E31

[1]  Andreas Worms,et al.  The Interest Rate and Credit Channels in Belgium: An Investigation with Micro-Level Firm Data , 2001, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[2]  S. Turnovsky Growth in an Open Economy: Some Recent Developments , 2000 .

[3]  G. Coenen BACKGROUND STUDY FOR THE EVALUATION OF , 2003 .

[4]  Athanasios Orphanides,et al.  Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero , 1998, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[5]  J. Rochet,et al.  The Lender of Last Resort: A 21st Century Approach , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[6]  F. Seitz,et al.  The Demand for Euro Area Currencies: Past, Present and Future , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[7]  E. Hahn Pass-Through of External Shocks to Euro Area Inflation , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[8]  David Marqués-Ibáñez,et al.  The High-Yield Segment of the Corporate Bond Market: A Diffusion Modelling Approach for the United States, the United Kingdom and the Euro Area , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[9]  Alan A. Carruth,et al.  What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty , 2000 .

[10]  V. Wieland,et al.  The Zero-Interest Rate Bound and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan , 2003 .

[11]  R. King,et al.  The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy , 1997, NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

[12]  Michele Cincera,et al.  Financing Constraints, Fixed Capital and R&D Investment Decisions of Belgian Firms , 2002 .

[13]  Dieter Gerdesmeier,et al.  Empirical Estimates of Reaction Functions for the Euro Area , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[14]  K. Hubrich Forecasting Euro Area Inflation: Does Aggregating Forecasts by Hicp Component Improve Forecast Accuracy? , 2003 .

[15]  Rolf R. Strauch,et al.  Public Finances and Long-Term Growth in Europe - Evidence from a Panel Data Analysis , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[16]  Stan Maes,et al.  Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand? , 2003 .

[17]  I. Visco,et al.  Knowledge, Technology and Economic Growth: an OECD Perspective , 2000 .

[18]  Dieter Gerdesmeier,et al.  A comprehensive model on the Euro overnight rate. , 2003 .

[19]  R. Farmer,et al.  Identifying the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Using Structural Breaks , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[20]  Matteo Ciccarelli,et al.  Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[21]  Michele Manna Developing Statistical Indicators of the Integration of the Euro Area Banking System , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[22]  Marcus Miller,et al.  Growth Expectations, Capital Flows and International Risk Sharing , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[23]  Simone Manganelli,et al.  The Euro Area Financial System: Structure, Integration and Policy Initiatives , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[24]  Gerhard Rünstler,et al.  Short-Term Estimates of Euro Area Real GDP by Means of Monthly Data , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[25]  J. Vidal,et al.  Implicit Tax Co-Ordination Under Repeated Policy Interactions , 2003 .

[26]  R. Engle,et al.  Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[27]  António Afonso,et al.  Public sector efficiency: An international comparison , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[28]  Natacha Valla,et al.  The Natural Real Rate of Interest in the Euro Area , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[29]  Mia Hubert,et al.  Inflation, Relative Prices and Nominal Rigidities , 2002 .

[30]  Charles Wyplosz Economic Growth and the Labor Markets: Europe's Challenge , 2000 .

[31]  Saul Lach,et al.  The Behavior of Prices and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of Disaggregat Price Data , 1992, Journal of Political Economy.

[32]  W. DeWald Bond Market Inflation Expectations and Long-Term Trends in Broad Monetary Growth and Inflation in Industrial Countries, 1880-2001 , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[33]  A. Kashyap,et al.  NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE OUTPUT COMPOSITION PUZZLE: A DIFFERENCE IN THE MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN THE EURO AREA AND U.S , 2003 .

[34]  C. Engel,et al.  Exchange Rates and Fundamentals , 2003, Journal of Political Economy.

[35]  V. Pérez,et al.  Inflation targets and the liquidity trap , 2003 .

[36]  C. Osbat,et al.  Productivity and the ('Synthetic') Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[37]  G. Calvo Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework , 1983 .

[38]  Claudio Morana,et al.  Frequency domain principal components estimation of fractionally cointegrated processes , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[39]  Matt Klaeffling Macroeconomic Modelling of Monetary Policy , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[40]  John B. Taylor Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics , 1998 .

[41]  Petra Gerlach-Kristen Interest Rate Reaction Functions and the Taylor Rule in the Euro Area , 2003 .

[42]  R. Beetsma,et al.  What are the Spill-Overs from Fiscal Shocks in Europe? An Empirical Analysis , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[43]  Hans Degryse,et al.  Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Systemic Risk in the Belgian Banking System , 2004 .

[44]  Koen Burggraeve,et al.  The Labour Market and Fiscal Impact of Labour Reductions: The Case of Reduction of Employers' Social Security Contributions Under a Wage Norm Regime with Automatic Price Indexing of Wages , 2003 .

[45]  Thorsten V. Koeppl Risk Sharing Through Financial Markets with Endogenous Enforcement of Trades , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[46]  Mrinal G Ghosh,et al.  INFLATION AND RELATIVE PRICE ASYMMETRY , 2001 .

[47]  S. Leduc,et al.  International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[48]  P. Sevestre,et al.  Price Rigidity: Evidence from the French CPI Macro-Data , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[49]  Fabio Canova,et al.  Similarities and Convergence in G-7 Cycles , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[50]  Efrem Castelnuovo Describing the Fed's Conduct with Taylor Rules: Is Interest Rate Smoothing Important? , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[51]  Julián Messina Institutions and Service Employment: A Panel Study for OECD Countries , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[52]  Wouter J. den Haan,et al.  Temporary Shocks and Unavoidable Transitions to a High-Unemployment Regime , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[53]  B. Anderton Extra-Euro Area Manufacturing Import Prices and Exchange Rate Pass-Through , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[54]  Roberto A. De Santis,et al.  ON THE DETERMINANTS OF EURO AREA FDI TO THE UNITED STATES : THE KNOWLEDGE-CAPITAL-TOBIN ’ S Q FRAMEWORK , 2004 .

[55]  Peter Hördahl,et al.  Interpreting Implied Risk-Neutral Densities: The Role of Risk Premia , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[56]  Kosuke Aoki Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes , 2001 .

[57]  Quentin Wibaut Politique monetaire et prix des actifs: le cas des Etats-Unis , 2000 .

[58]  Patrick J. G. Van Cayseele,et al.  Investment, R&D and Liquidity Constraints , 2002 .

[59]  Andrzej Skrzypacz,et al.  Inflation and Price Setting in a Natural Experiment , 2000 .

[60]  C. Fuss,et al.  The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment Plans , 2002 .

[61]  Julián Messina,et al.  The Role of Product Market Regulations in the Process of Structural Change , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[62]  Alpo Willman Consumption, Habit Persistence, Imperfect Information and the Lifetime Budget Constraint , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[63]  L. Kilian,et al.  The Central Bank as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[64]  G. Moerman Diversification in Euro Area Stock Markets: Country Versus Industry , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[65]  A. Kashyap,et al.  Sticky Prices: New Evidence from Retail Catalogs , 1994 .

[66]  H. Meersman,et al.  Investment, Uncertainty and Irreversibility: Evidence from Belgian Accounting Data , 2002 .

[67]  Frédéric Verschueren,et al.  Finance, Uncertainty and Investment: Assessing the Gains and Losses of a Generalized Non Linear Structural Approach Using Belgian Panel Data , 2002 .

[68]  R. Farmer,et al.  On the Indeterminacy of New-Keynesian Economics , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[69]  Philippe Jeanfils,et al.  A Guided Tour of the World of Rational Expectations Models and Optimal Policies , 2001 .

[70]  Frank Smets,et al.  An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area , 2002 .

[71]  E. Jansen Modelling Inflation in the Euro Area , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[72]  G.J.C.M. van Gastel,et al.  «De autonijverheid in België: Het belang van het toeleveringsnetwerk rond de assemblage van personenauto's» , 2003 .

[73]  Gregory H. Bauer,et al.  International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[74]  António Afonso,et al.  Fiscal Policy Events and Interest Rate Swap Spreads: Evidence from the EU , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[75]  H. Gleich Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Central and Eastern European Countries , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[76]  D. Carlton,et al.  The Rigidity of Prices , 1986 .

[77]  T. Rønde,et al.  Cooperation in International Banking Supervision , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[78]  A. Calza,et al.  Why Has Broad Money Demand Been More Stable in the Euro Area than in Other Economies? A Literature Review , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[79]  Matt Klaeffling Monetary Policy Shocks - A Nonfundamental Look at the Data , 2003 .

[80]  Benoît Mercereau Real Exchange Rate in an Inter-Temporal N-Country-Model with Incomplete Markets , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[81]  J. Galí,et al.  Erratum to "European inflation dynamics": [European Economic Review 45 (2001), 1237-1270] , 2003 .

[82]  R. Sueppel Comparing Economic Dynamics in the EU and CEE Accession Countries , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[83]  Fernando González,et al.  A Framework for Collateral Risk Control Determination , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[84]  Tommaso Monacelli,et al.  Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-Through Environment , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[85]  P. Sevestre,et al.  La rigidité des prix en France : quelques enseignements des relevés de prix à la consommation , 2005 .

[86]  Gianluca Benigno,et al.  Designing Targeting Rules for International Monetary Policy Cooperation , 2006, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[87]  Cyril Monnet,et al.  Money and Payments: A Modern Perspective , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[88]  M. Ruta The Allocation of Competencies in an International Union: A Positive Analysis , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[89]  Nicola Giammarioli Indeterminacy and Search Theory , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[90]  C. Morana A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[91]  D. Fielding,et al.  Myopic Loss Aversion, Disappointment Aversion, and the Equity Premium Puzzle , 2007, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[92]  Saul Lach,et al.  Staggering and Synchronization in Price-Setting: Evidence from Multipro-Duct Firms , 1994 .

[93]  Gonzalo Camba-Mendez,et al.  RELEVANT ECONOMIC ISSUES CONCERNING THE OPTIMAL RATE OF INFLATION 1 , 2003 .

[94]  Jean-Jacques Vanhaelen,et al.  The Belgian Industrial Confidence Indicator: Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in the Euro Area? , 2000 .

[95]  R. Baldwin,et al.  The Impact of Monetary Union on Trade Prices , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[96]  Alexander L. Wolman Sticky Prices, Marginal Cost, and the Behavior of Inflation , 1999 .

[97]  H. Grüner,et al.  Information Acquisition and Decision Making in Committees: A Survey , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[98]  Fabio Moneta Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area? , 2005 .

[99]  Alpo Willman,et al.  New Keynesian Phillips Curves: A Reassessment Using Euro-Area Data , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[100]  Benoît Robert,et al.  La consommation privée en Belgique , 2003 .

[101]  S. Manigart,et al.  Financing and Investment Interdependencies in Unquoted Belgian Compagnies: The Role of Venture Capital , 2002 .

[102]  Rafael Wouters,et al.  Model-Based Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy Rules , 2000 .

[103]  M. Bussière,et al.  Current Account Dynamics in OECD and EU Acceding Countries - an Intertemporal Approach , 2004, Social Science Research Network.

[104]  G. Rich Swiss Monetary Targeting 1974–1996: The Role of Internal Policy Analysis , 2003 .

[105]  Mia Hubert,et al.  WORKING PAPERS - RESEARCH SERIES INFLATION, RELATIVE PRICES AND NOMINAL RIGIDITIES , 2002 .

[106]  J. Galí,et al.  European Inflation Dynamics , 2001 .

[107]  A. Bruggeman,et al.  A Monthly Monetary Model with Banking Intermediation for the Euro Area , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[108]  R. Farmer,et al.  On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[109]  Giovanna Vallanti,et al.  Gross Job Flows and Institutions in Europe , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[110]  Stephen G. Cecchetti Staggered Contracts and the Frequency of Price Adjustment , 1985 .

[111]  A. Derviz Exchange Rate Risks and Asset Prices in a Small Open Economy , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[112]  Giuseppe De Arcangelis,et al.  Identifying Fiscal Shocks and Policy Regimes in OECD Countries , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[113]  A. Durre,et al.  Stock Market Valuation in the United States , 2003 .

[114]  Robert G. King,et al.  State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output , 1999 .

[115]  A. Warne,et al.  Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy Using Bayesian Cointegrated Structural Vars , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[116]  Silvia Fabiani,et al.  Aggregation and Euro Area Phillips Curves , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[117]  Luc Aucremanne,et al.  Attractive Prices and Euro-Rounding Effects on Inflation , 2001 .

[118]  I. Maes,et al.  The Process of European Monetary Integration: A Comparison of the Belgian and Italian Approaches , 2003 .

[119]  Michael Ehrmann,et al.  Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area: Any Changes after Emu? , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[120]  Jean-Bernard Chatelain,et al.  Structural Modelling of Investment and Financial Constraints: Where Do We Stand? , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[121]  Ronald MacDonald,et al.  The Role of the Exchange Rate in Economic Growth: A Euro-Zone Perspective , 2000 .

[122]  B. Kaltenhäuser,et al.  Country and Sector-Specific Spillover Effects in the Euro Area, the United States and Japan , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[123]  Timothy C. G. Fisher,et al.  Synchronization of price changes by multiproduct firms: evidence from Canadian newspaper prices , 2000 .

[124]  F. Smets,et al.  Persistence, the Transmission Mechanism and Robust Monetary Policy , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[125]  R. Klump Inflation, Factor Substitution and Growth , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[126]  A. Durre,et al.  Estimating Risk Premia in Money Market Rates , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[127]  Livio Stracca,et al.  How Does the ECB Allot Liquidity in its Weekly Main Refinancing Operations? A Look at the Empirical Evidence , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[128]  Alexander L. Wolman The Frequency and Costs of Individual Price Adjustment , 2000 .

[129]  F. Smets,et al.  Openness, Imperfect Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[130]  R. D. Santis,et al.  The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment , 2003 .

[131]  Ivo Maes,et al.  On the Origins of the Franco-German EMU Controversies , 2002 .

[132]  Barbara Annicchiarico Government Deficits, Wealth Effects and the Price Level in an Optimizing Model , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[133]  Philippe Jeanfils A Model with Explicit Expectations for Belgium , 2000 .

[134]  V. Gaspar,et al.  Maintaining Price Stability Under Free-Floating: A Fearless Way Out of the Corner? , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[135]  A. Warne,et al.  BACKGROUND STUDY FOR THE EVALUATION OF , 2003 .

[136]  W. Barnett Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation Over the Euro Area, When Countries are Heterogeneous , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[137]  Luc Aucremanne,et al.  The Use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation , 2000 .

[138]  Peter McAdam,et al.  Unemployment, Hysteresis and Transition , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[139]  Rolf R. Strauch,et al.  Budgetary Forecasts in Europe - the Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[140]  Jukka M. Vesala,et al.  Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard and Market Monitoring , 2004 .

[141]  Paul R. Masson Fiscal Policy and Growth in the Context of European Integration , 2000, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[142]  F. Monti Implementing Optimal Control in Cointegrated I(1) Structural VAR Models , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[143]  M. Dias,et al.  Stylised Features of Price Setting Behaviour in Portugal: 1992-2001 , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[144]  Lawrence J. Christiano,et al.  The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz Hypothesis , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[145]  C. Osbat,et al.  The Rise of the Yen Vis-a-Vis the ('Synthetic') Euro: Is it Supported by Economic Fundamentals? , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[146]  A. Calza,et al.  Aggregate Loans to the Euro Area Private Sector , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[147]  Klaus Adam,et al.  Inflation Dynamics and Subjective Expectations in the United States , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[148]  John B. Taylor Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts , 1980, Journal of Political Economy.

[149]  Inessa Love,et al.  Investment, Protection, Ownership, and the Cost of Capital , 2000 .

[150]  James Yetman,et al.  The Credibility of the Monetary Policy 'Free Lunch' , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[151]  Diego Romero de Avila Torrijos Finance and Growth in the EU: New Evidence from the Liberalisation and Harmonisation of the Banking Industry , 2003 .

[152]  Klaus Adam Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge , 2003 .

[153]  John Vickers,et al.  Monetary Union and Economic Growth , 2000 .

[154]  John A. Carlson,et al.  Menu costs, firm size and price rigidity , 2000 .

[155]  Christian Ewerhart,et al.  Optimal Allotment Policy in the Eurosystem's Main Refinancing Operations , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[156]  Efrem Castelnuovo,et al.  Definition of Price Stability, Range and Point Inflation Targets: The Anchoring of Long-Term Inflation Expectations , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[157]  Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé,et al.  Anticipated Ramsey Reforms and the Uniform Taxation Principle: The Role of International Financial Markets , 2002, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[158]  Andrea Zaghini Trade Advantages and Specialisation Dynamics in Acceding Countries , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[159]  Sami Vähämaa Option-Implied Asymmetries in Bond Market Expectations Around Monetary Policy Actions of the ECB , 2004, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[160]  G. Coenen Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Long-Run Phillips Curve: Simulation-Based Evidence for the Euro Area? , 2003 .

[161]  Stephen G. Cecchetti The frequency of price adjustment: A study of the newsstand prices of magazines , 1986 .

[162]  P. Mcadam USA, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business‐Cycle Features , 2003 .

[163]  Massimiliano Marcellino,et al.  Interpolation and Backdating with a Large Information Set , 2003 .

[164]  C. Morana,et al.  Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: Evidence from high frequency data , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[165]  Alain Nyssens,et al.  Performances économiques des Etats-Unis dans les années nonante , 2000 .