Investigation of seismicity after the initiation of a Seismic Electric Signal activity until the main shock

The behavior of seismicity in the area candidate to suffer a main shock is investigated after the observation of the Seismic Electric Signal activity until the impending main shock. This is based on the view that the occurrence of earthquakes is a critical phenomenon to which statistical dynamics may be applied. In the present work, analysing the time series of small earthquakes, the concept of natural time chi was used and the results revealed that the approach to criticality itself can be manifested by the probability density function (PDF) of kappa(1) calculated over an appropriate statistical ensemble. Here, kappa(1) is the variance kappa(1)(=-(2)) resulting from the power spectrum of a function defined as Phi(omega)= summation operator(k=1)(N) p(k) exp(iomegachi(k)), where p(k) is the normalized energy of the k-th small earthquake and omega the natural frequency. This PDF exhibits a maximum at kappa(1) asymptotically equal to 0.070 a few days before the main shock. Examples are presented, referring to the magnitude 6 approximately 7 class earthquakes that occurred in Greece.

[1]  G. G. Stokes.  "J." , 1890, The New Yale Book of Quotations.

[2]  William Feller,et al.  An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications , 1951 .

[3]  P. Varotsos.  On the temperature and pressure dependence of the defect formation volume in ionic crystals , 1977 .

[4]  Panayiotis A. Varotsos,et al.  Calculation of the migration volume of vacancies in ionic solids from macroscopic parameters , 1978 .

[5]  Panayiotis A. Varotsos,et al.  Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes, I , 1984 .

[6]  Panayiotis A. Varotsos,et al.  Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude , 1984 .

[7]  Costas A. Varotsos,et al.  Point defect parameters of LiF , 1985 .

[8]  Ralph O. Simmons,et al.  Thermodynamics of Point Defects and Their Relation With Bulk Properties , 1985 .

[9]  M. S. Lazaridou,et al.  Official earthquake prediction procedure in Greece , 1988 .

[10]  M. S. Lazaridou,et al.  Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals, II☆ , 1993 .

[11]  Nicholas V. Sarlis,et al.  INTERCONNECTION OF DEFECT PARAMETERS AND STRESS-INDUCED ELECTRIC SIGNALS IN IONIC CRYSTALS , 1999 .

[12]  M. S. Lazaridou,et al.  Numerical model of the selectivity effect and the ΔV/L criterion , 1999 .

[13]  D. Sornette.  Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Selforganization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools , 2000 .

[14]  S. Uyeda,et al.  Geoelectric potential changes: possible precursors to earthquakes in Japan. , 2000, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[15]  H. Tanaka,et al.  Electric and magnetic phenomena observed before the volcano-seismic activity in 2000 in the Izu Island Region, Japan , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[16]  Kim Christensen,et al.  Unified scaling law for earthquakes. , 2001, Physical review letters.

[17]  P. Varotsos,et al.  Long-range correlations in the electric signals that precede rupture. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[18]  Seiya Uyeda,et al.  The selectivity of the Ioannina VAN station , 2002 .

[19]  Funabashi,et al.  Scale-free network of earthquakes , 2002 .

[20]  P. Varotsos,et al.  Attempt to distinguish electric signals of a dichotomous nature. , 2003, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[21]  M. Baiesi,et al.  Scale-free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks. , 2003, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[22]  Haruo Tanaka,et al.  A plausible universal behaviour of earthquakes in the natural time-domain , 2004, Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and Biological Sciences.

[23]  P. Varotsos,et al.  Entropy in the natural time domain. , 2004, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[24]  Alvaro Corral.  Long-term clustering, scaling, and universality in the temporal occurrence of earthquakes. , 2004, Physical review letters.

[25]  Panayiotis A. Varotsos,et al.  The physics of seismic electric signals , 2005 .

[26]  P. Varotsos,et al.  Some properties of the entropy in the natural time. , 2005, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[27]  P. Varotsos,et al.  Similarity of fluctuations in correlated systems: the case of seismicity. , 2005, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[28]  Andrea Donnellan,et al.  Space-time clustering and correlations of major earthquakes. , 2006, Physical review letters.

[29]  P. Varotsos,et al.  Entropy of seismic electric signals: analysis in natural time under time reversal. , 2005, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[30]  Panayiotis A. VAROTSOS.  What happened before the last five strong earthquakes in Greece: Facts and open questions , 2006, Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and biological sciences.

[31]  P. Varotsos,et al.  Attempt to distinguish long-range temporal correlations from the statistics of the increments by natural time analysis. , 2006, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[32]  P. Shebalin.  Increased correlation range of seismicity before large events manifested by earthquake chains , 2006 .

[33]  Efthimios S. Skordas,et al.  Additional evidence on some relationship between Seismic Electric Signals (SES) and earthquake focal mechanism , 2006 .

[34]  K. Tiampo,et al.  Ergodicity in natural earthquake fault networks. , 2006, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[35]  Structure of fluctuations near mean-field critical points and spinodals and its implication for physical processes. , 2006, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[36]  F. Angulo-Brown,et al.  A statistical analysis of electric self-potential time series associated to two 1993 earthquakes in Mexico , 2007 .

[37]  M. S. Lazaridou,et al.  Fluctuations, under time reversal, of the natural time and the entropy distinguish similar looking electric signals of different dynamics , 2007, 0707.3074.