Estimating Operational Benefits of Aircraft Navigation and Air Traffic Control Procedures using an Integrated Aviation Modeling and Evaluation Platform

Complex constraints generally define the performance of air transportation systems. These constraints include aircraft operational characteristics, airline operating procedures, and air traffic control (ATC) requirements. The operational variability that is present in complex air transportation systems and their components typically demands a Monte Carlo approach when modeling system performance metrics. However, the inherent variability is generally not known a priori. This calls for a separate model validation approach that yields estimates of system variability and validates baseline model performance. This paper reports on an integrated aviation modeling platform that was developed for comparing and evaluating proposed aircraft flight operations and ATC procedures. It integrates both an agent-based Monte Carlo modeling environment and a data-driven model validation capability. The capabilities are outlined, the validation approach is described, and examples are presented of performance metrics quantifying operational benefits of air navigation procedures that are currently being implemented at major U.S. airports