THE ANALYSIS BY STOCHASTIC MODELLING OF SOLAR SYSTEMS FOR SPACE AND WATER HEATING

ABSTRACT This paper discusses the use of methods of applied probability in the modelling of active systems for collecting, storing and distributing solar thermal energy. It is seen that these methods are particularly convenient for the calculation of the long term performance of such systems. In comparison with detailed hour-by-hour simulations the method is shown to yield adequate accuracy for economic calculations, except when the panel area/storage volume ratio is high. The required computational effort is however negligible, and the data base is compact. Further, being fully analytic, the method may be generalised to other systems.