Energy security matters in the EU Energy Roadmap

Energy security has gained increasing prominence on the EU political agenda, but is often framed narrowly, in terms of import dependency or security of supply. In this paper we screen and scope out a more comprehensive suite of energy security aspects to be considered when assessing low-carbon energy scenarios and apply it using the EU Energy Roadmap as an example. Availability and affordability issues as well as security of demand matters and geopolitical security aspects are identified and discussed. External factors, e.g., future international climate treaties and international relations, are important for some energy security outcomes. A broader framing of energy security together with structured assessments on the security implications of energy transitions would benefit future EU energy policy.

[1]  Gordon Rae,et al.  Measuring and monitoring fuel poverty in the UK: National and regional perspectives , 2012 .

[2]  Michael L. Ross,et al.  Does Taxation Lead to Representation? , 2004, British Journal of Political Science.

[3]  George Wright,et al.  Scenario Thinking: Practical Approaches to the Future , 2011 .

[4]  B. Buzan,et al.  Security: A New Framework for Analysis , 1997 .

[5]  Bengt Johansson,et al.  A broadened typology on energy and security , 2013 .

[6]  M. Bassin,et al.  Energy and Identity: Imagining Russia as a Hydrocarbon Superpower , 2011 .

[7]  Mikael Höök,et al.  Lithium availability and future production outlooks , 2013 .

[8]  Kyung Hwan Yoon,et al.  Energy price uncertainty, energy intensity and firm investment , 2011 .

[9]  Barry Buzan,et al.  Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security , 2003 .

[10]  Johan Lilliestam,et al.  Energy security and renewable electricity trade—Will Desertec make Europe vulnerable to the “energy weapon”? , 2011 .

[11]  Aie,et al.  World Energy Outlook 2013 , 2013 .

[12]  L. Nilsson,et al.  The rise and fall of GO trading in European renewable energy policy: The role of advocacy and policy framing , 2009 .

[13]  D. Stokes,et al.  Global Energy Security and American Hegemony , 2010 .

[14]  E. Tzimas,et al.  The potential risks from metals bottlenecks to the deployment of Strategic Energy Technologies , 2013 .

[15]  Felix Ciută,et al.  Conceptual Notes on Energy Security: Total or Banal Security? , 2010 .

[16]  W. M. Corden,et al.  BOOMING SECTOR AND DUTCH DISEASE ECONOMICS: SURVEY AND CONSOLIDATION , 1984 .

[17]  Liu Shiping,et al.  Volatility spillovers in China’s crude oil, corn and fuel ethanol markets , 2013 .

[18]  Julien Mercille,et al.  The radical geopolitics of US foreign policy: the 2003 Iraq War , 2010 .

[19]  Elena S. Paltseva,et al.  Measuring the Security of External Energy Supply in the European Union , 2009 .

[20]  Tomas Carlsson,et al.  Strategic environmental assessment methodologies--applications within the energy sector , 2003 .

[21]  L. Nilsson,et al.  Energy security should have more weight in low carbon scenarios , 2014 .

[22]  Kristian Lindgren,et al.  Why large-scale bioenergy production on marginal land is unfeasible: A conceptual partial equilibrium analysis , 2013 .

[23]  P. Kundur,et al.  Definition and classification of power system stability IEEE/CIGRE joint task force on stability terms and definitions , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[24]  Gal Luft,et al.  ENERGY SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE: A tenuous link , 2010 .

[25]  Martin Kumar Patel,et al.  The impact of copper scarcity on the efficiency of 2050 global renewable energy scenarios , 2013 .

[26]  R Ekman,et al.  Making sense of safety , 2004, Injury Prevention.

[27]  K. J. Brazier,et al.  Objective and subjective measures of fuel poverty , 2012 .

[28]  J. Mearsheimer.  Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War , 1990 .

[29]  Lutz E. Schlange.  Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation , 1997 .

[30]  C. Locatelli,et al.  Energy institutional and organisational changes in EU and Russia: Revisiting gas relations , 2013 .

[31]  Pantelis Capros,et al.  European decarbonisation pathways under alternative technological and policy choices: A multi-model analysis☆ , 2014 .

[32]  K. Lindgren,et al.  Major oil exporters may profit rather than lose, in a carbon-constrained world , 2007 .

[33]  Mark J. C. Crescenzi,et al.  Economic Exit, Interdependence, and Conflict , 2003 .

[34]  D. Vuuren,et al.  Indicators for energy security , 2009 .

[35]  J. C. Jansen,et al.  Long-term energy services security: What is it and how can it be measured and valued? , 2010 .

[36]  Karen Smith Stegen.  Deconstructing the “energy weapon”: Russia's threat to Europe as case study , 2011 .

[37]  Richard M. Auty,et al.  Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis , 1993 .

[38]  M. Doyle,et al.  The Democratic Peace , 1995 .

[39]  F. Umbach.  Global energy security and the implications for the EU , 2010 .

[40]  P. Collier,et al.  Greed and Grievance in Civil War , 1999 .

[41]  Robert O. Keohane,et al.  Power and interdependence , 1977 .

[42]  Lars J Nilsson,et al.  Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies , 2014 .

[43]  Edward S. Rubin,et al.  Understanding the pitfalls of CCS cost estimates , 2012 .

[44]  Lars J Nilsson,et al.  The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies , 2011 .

[45]  Pedro Linares,et al.  The economics of new nuclear power plants in liberalized electricity markets , 2013 .

[46]  Kenneth N. Waltz.  Structural Realism after the Cold War , 2000, International Security.

[47]  T. Bernauer,et al.  Do natural resources matter for interstate and intrastate armed conflict? , 2014 .

[48]  Wonjoon Kim,et al.  The Analysis of Security Cost for Different Energy Sources , 2009 .

[49]  H. Ossenbrink,et al.  European renewable government policies versus model predictions , 2014 .

[50]  Kimon Keramidas,et al.  Conflict and cooperation over access to energy: Implications for a low-carbon future , 2014 .

[51]  S. Peters.  Coercive western energy security strategies: ‘resource wars’ as a new threat to global security , 2004 .

[52]  Lennart Söder.  På väg mot en elförsörjning baserad på enbart förnybar el i Sverige En studie om kraftsystemets balansering: Version 3.0 , 2013 .

[53]  Göran Finnveden,et al.  Scenarios in selected tools for environmental systems analysis , 2008 .

[54]  André Månsson,et al.  Energy, conflict and war: Towards a conceptual framework , 2014 .

[55]  Andrew Stirling,et al.  Multicriteria diversity analysis: A novel heuristic framework for appraising energy portfolios , 2010 .

[56]  Richard Moore,et al.  Definitions of fuel poverty: Implications for policy , 2012 .

[57]  D. L. Simms,et al.  Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies , 1986 .

[58]  Filippos Proedrou.  The EU–Russia Energy Approach under the Prism of Interdependence , 2007 .

[59]  Aie.  World Energy Outlook 2011 , 2011 .

[60]  Katherine Barbieri,et al.  The Liberal Illusion: Does Trade Promote Peace? , 2002 .