Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the COVID-19 pandemic

Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios of climate-dependence based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in humidity may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 climate may drive only modest changes to pandemic size and duration. Our results suggest that, in the absence of effective control measures, significant cases in the coming months are likely to occur in more humid (warmer) climates, irrespective of the climate-dependence of transmission and that summer temperatures will not substantially limit pandemic growth.