Basics Non-Time Series Production Scale Semantic Wind Power Consumption Evaluation Method

Accurate accommodation evaluation is important for the development planning of wind power. However, it is difficult to obtain the detailed time-sequence data of wind power output during planning stage and the typical evaluation method of time-sequence accommodation is difficult to be applied, so it is necessary to research the evaluation method of accommodation capacity based on the limited wind resource probabilistic; characteristic data. This paper proposed a functional minimization model which took maximum wind power accommodation as target based on probability production simulation and a practical evaluation algorithm based on heuristic; method. This method only needed the probability distribution information of wind resource and could solve the problem of lacking detailed wind power data during planning stage, which also had a fast computation speed. Based on the actual running data in 2018 and planning data in 2020 of a large wind power base in northern China, the simulation analysis was carried out. The actual wind power accommodation results in 2018 were compared with the simulation results, which could validity the correctness of the proposed method. Finally, according to the planning data in 2020, this paper analyzed the saturation trend of wind power accommodation and installed capacity, and quantitatively studied the promoting effect of flexible measures on wind power accommodation, which could provide some suggestions for wind power planning.