Rational Choice and Judgment: Decision Analysis for the Decider

Preface. Who Might Use This Book. Background. Substance of this Book. Pedagogy. Demands on Students and Instructor. Other Approaches, Other Materials. Author Background. Acknowledgments. Prolog: A Baby Delivery Dilemma. 1. Basics and Overview. 2. Uses of Decision Analysis. Appendix 2A: Decision Analysis Reflects on His Work. 3. Evaluating a Choice Qualitatively. 4. Quantitative Aid to Rational Choice. Appendix 4A: Business Decision Tree Example. Appendix 4B: Private Example: Study or Play? 5. Describing Outcomes. 6. Taking Preference Into Account. 7. Choice Under Uncertainty. Appendix 7A. Technical Notes. 8. Decision Aiding Strategy. Appendix 8A. Influence Sketches. 9. Aiding the Professional Decider. Appendix 9A. Environmental Regulation Case Study. 10. Assessing and Inferring Probabilities. 11. Eliciting Preferences. 12. Applied Term Project. Appendix 12A. Student Project Report. Epilog. References. Glossary of Concepts and Terms. Index.

[1]  J. Platt.  Strong Inference , 2007 .

[2]  Gustavo E. de Mello,et al.  Linguistic Gender Marking and Categorization , 2005 .

[3]  Darren W. Dahl,et al.  Designing the Solution: The Impact of Constraints on Consumers' Creativity , 2005 .

[4]  D. Kahneman,et al.  The Boundaries of Loss Aversion , 2005 .

[5]  John R. Vacca,et al.  Defense in Depth: Firewall Topologies , 2005 .

[6]  Dean Schuyler,et al.  Making a Decision. , 2004, Primary care companion to the Journal of clinical psychiatry.

[7]  P. J. Sandler,et al.  Keeping your eye on the ball. , 2004, Dental update.

[8]  Rex Brown.  Naming Concepts Worth Naming: (Comment on Howard 2004) , 2004, Decis. Anal..

[9]  Nicholas H. Lurie.  Decision Making in Information-Rich Environments: The Role of Information Structure , 2004 .

[10]  James L. Corner,et al.  Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990 - 2001 , 2004, Decis. Anal..

[11]  J. Cacioppo.  Asymmetries in affect-laden information processing. , 2004 .

[12]  Mahzarin R. Banaji,et al.  Perspectivism in Social Psychology: The Yin and Yang of Scientific Progress , 2004 .

[13]  Olaf R. P. Bininda-Emonds,et al.  Garbage in, Garbage out , 2004 .

[14]  Sujatha Jahagirdar,et al.  Down the Drain , 2003 .

[15]  Lloyd L. Weinreb.  Integrity in Government , 2003 .

[16]  William Mackaness,et al.  The Devil is in the Detail: Visualising Analogical Thought in Retail Location Decisionmaking , 2003, Intensive & critical care nursing.

[17]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment , 2002 .

[18]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You , 2002 .

[19]  Robert T. Clemen,et al.  The Value of Decision Analysis at Eastman Kodak Company, 1990-1999 , 2001, Interfaces.

[20]  Christopher K. Hsee,et al.  Risk as Feelings , 2001, Psychological bulletin.

[21]  David Laibson,et al.  Experienced Utility and Objective Happiness: A Moment-Based Approach , 2001 .

[22]  A. Tversky,et al.  Choices, Values, and Frames , 2000 .

[23]  Joseph A. Sclafani.  Think outside the Box , 2000 .

[24]  J. Alba,et al.  Consumer Learning and Brand Equity , 2000 .

[25]  Andrew P. Sage,et al.  Introduction to systems engineering , 2000 .

[26]  Louis Jacobs,et al.  Beyond Reasonable Doubt , 1999 .

[27]  M. F. Luce,et al.  Constructive Consumer Choice Processes , 1998 .

[28]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Book Reviews : Scientific Opportunities and Public Needs: Improv ing Priority Setting and Public Input at the National Institutes of Health. Institute of Medicine. Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1998, 136 pages, $26.00 , 1998 .

[29]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Justifying Public Decisions in Arctic Oil and Gas Development: American and Russian Approaches , 1998 .

[30]  Deborah Roedder John,et al.  Consumer Learning by Analogy: A Model of Internal Knowledge Transfer , 1997 .

[31]  E. Higgins,et al.  Beyond pleasure and pain. , 1997, The American psychologist.

[32]  D. Kahneman,et al.  Back to Bentham? Explorations of experience utility , 1997 .

[33]  John W. Moore.  Am I Doing the Right Thing , 1997 .

[34]  Terrance Odean,et al.  Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses? , 1996 .

[35]  J. Egozcue,et al.  Of course, not , 1996 .

[36]  J. Krauss.  In the public interest. , 1996, Archives of psychiatric nursing.

[37]  M. A. Khalidi.  Go West, Young Man , 1996 .

[38]  S. Sloman.  The empirical case for two systems of reasoning. , 1996 .

[39]  H. Raiffa,et al.  Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory , 1996 .

[40]  J. Armstrong.  Publication of Research on Controversial Topics: The Early Acceptance Procedure , 1996 .

[41]  J. Mazanec,et al.  Consumer decision making. , 1994 .

[42]  L. Phillips,et al.  Faciliated Work Groups: Theory and Practice , 1993 .

[43]  G. Klein,et al.  Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods , 1993 .

[44]  Eric J. Johnson,et al.  The adaptive decision maker , 1993 .

[45]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  The State of the Art of Decision Analysis: A Personal Perspective , 1992 .

[46]  S. R. Watson,et al.  The presumptions of prescription , 1992 .

[47]  Haas Kb,et al.  Wait a minute! , 1992, Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association.

[48]  R. M. Oliver,et al.  Influence diagrams, belief nets and decision analysis , 1992 .

[49]  Daniel Kahneman,et al.  Valuing public goods: The purchase of moral satisfaction , 1992 .

[50]  Eric Horvitz,et al.  Decision Analysis and Expert Systems , 1991, AI Mag..

[51]  James L. Corner,et al.  Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970-1989 , 1991, Oper. Res..

[52]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Teaching Decision Making To Adolescents , 1991 .

[53]  B. Ingham.  Kill the Messenger , 1991 .

[54]  T. S. Robertson,et al.  Handbook of Consumer Behavior , 1990 .

[55]  Max Stafford-Clark,et al.  Taking stock , 2022, Trans. GIS.

[56]  R. MacCoun.  Experimental Research on Jury Decision-Making , 1989, Science.

[57]  Jack V. Michaels,et al.  Design to Cost , 1989 .

[58]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Toward a prescriptive science and technology of decision aiding , 1989 .

[59]  D. Sterman,et al.  Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment , 1989 .

[60]  S. Pennington,et al.  A Woman’s Place is in the Home , 1989 .

[61]  Zur Shapira,et al.  Decision making: Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive interactions. , 1990 .

[62]  J M Dunning,et al.  "The best is the enemy of the good". , 1988, Journal of public health dentistry.

[63]  A. Sen,et al.  FREEDOM OF CHOICE: CONCEPT AND CONTENT , 2008 .

[64]  S. R. Watson,et al.  Decision Synthesis: The Principles and Practice of Decision Analysis@@@Strategic and Tactical Decisions , 1989 .

[65]  Masatoshi Sakawa,et al.  Multiattribute Utility Analysis , 1988 .

[66]  W. Edwards,et al.  Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research , 1986 .

[67]  Dennis M. Buede.  Structuring Value Attributes , 1986 .

[68]  David Lindley,et al.  Plural analysis: Multiple approaches to quantitative research , 1986 .

[69]  A. Sen,et al.  Rationality and uncertainty , 1985 .

[70]  K. A. Ericsson,et al.  Protocol Analysis: Verbal Reports as Data , 1984 .

[71]  Ulvila Jw,et al.  Decision analysis comes of age. , 1982 .

[72]  B. M. Staw.  The Escalation of Commitment To a Course of Action , 1981 .

[73]  Hepburn Pf,et al.  Private practice-3. , 1981 .

[74]  C. Beaumont.  Pitfalls of Analysis , 1981 .

[75]  L. Ross,et al.  Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. , 1981 .

[76]  S. Chaiken.  Heuristic versus systematic information processing and the use of source versus message cues in persuasion. , 1980 .

[77]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments , 1979 .

[78]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[79]  A. Forrest.  Quality control. , 1978, British medical journal.

[80]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  HERESY IN DECISION ANALYSIS: MODELING SUBSEQUENT ACTS WITHOUT ROLLBACK * , 1978 .

[81]  D. Lindley,et al.  Reconciling Incoherent Judgments (RIJ) - Toward Principles of Personal Rationality. , 1978 .

[82]  S. R. Watson,et al.  The Valuation of Decision Analysis , 1978 .

[83]  Jacob W. Ulvila,et al.  Selecting Analytic Approaches for Decision Situations. A Matching of Taxonomies. , 1976 .

[84]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[85]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Decision Analysis for the Manager , 1974 .

[86]  Merlin Hughes,et al.  Play safe. , 1997, Transactions of the St. John's Hospital Dermatological Society.

[87]  Peter Opie,et al.  CHILDREN'S GAMES , 1972 .

[88]  R. Howard,et al.  The decision to seed hurricanes. , 1972, Science.

[89]  Graham Allison,et al.  Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis , 1972 .

[90]  George R. McRobert.  “Join the Army...” , 1970 .

[91]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Research and the credibility of estimates , 1969 .

[92]  L. Beach,et al.  Man as an Intuitive Statistician , 2022 .

[93]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  Fuzzy Sets , 1996, Inf. Control..

[94]  E. E. Jones,et al.  From Acts To Dispositions The Attribution Process In Person Perception1 , 1965 .

[95]  Howard Raiffa,et al.  Applied Statistical Decision Theory. , 1961 .

[96]  M. Bradbury.  Eating People is Wrong , 1960 .

[97]  L. Festinger,et al.  A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance , 2017 .

[98]  Robert Weitz,et al.  An expert witness. , 1957 .

[99]  L. J. Savage,et al.  The Foundations of Statistics , 1955 .

[100]  W. Edwards.  The theory of decision making. , 1954, Psychological bulletin.