Hydrological forecasting decision combination based on multi-attribute fuzzy matter-element

【Objective】 The study was to establish a reasonable decision combination for multiple attribute hydrological forecasting,so as to provide important decision basis to improve forecast accuracy.【Method】 The study described the extraction of its attributes of hydrological forecasting.Synthesis weight was determined by subjective weight of experts and entropy weight.The fuzzy matter-element and comentropy were introduced into hydrological forecasting research field,and the fuzzy matter-element theory was used to deal with fuzzy information of hydrological forecasting,and the effective aggregation of attribute made use of comentropy.The scheme's preferred order according to the relative closeness,hydrological forecasting decision combination based on multi-attribute fuzzy matter-element was established.【Result】 This study used the combined method to pick the best hydrological forecasting model of the same section in different time points.We obtained the forecasting with measured time period much closer to the prediction value.The results showed that the combine method can forecast optimal value of the small relative error for merit-based scheme.It could improve the accuracy of forecasting results effectively,and improve the level of forecasting value.【Conclusion】 The hydrological forecasting decision combination based on multi-attribute fuzzy matter-element had strong rationality and applicability.An effective way was provided to improve forecast accuracy of hydrological forecasting.