Using fuzzy logic to implement decision policies in system dynamics models

A fuzzy logic-system dynamics methodology is proposed to enhance learning within virtual worlds.Theoretical discussion on the motivation and advantages of the integration.Case study applying the FL-SD methodology to a virtual world model of a Dynamic Balanced Scorecard. This paper aims to show how the use of fuzzy systems can enhance the application of system dynamics (SD), with the construction of virtual worlds, for organizational learning. By doing so, the main contribution is to propose a fuzzy-SD integrated methodology that allows a natural language modeling of decision policies. At first it will be revised the recent literature with practical and theoretical fuzzy-SD integration showing that the motivation and purpose of this article have not been explored yet. Following, it will be scrutinized the origin of system dynamics to theoretically justify the proposed fuzzy-SD integration for organizational learning. Finally, it will be presented a hypothetical case study based on the balance scorecard model to illustrate the methodology in action.

[1]  T. Ross Fuzzy Logic with Engineering Applications , 1994 .

[2]  Farnad Nasirzadeh,et al.  Integrating system dynamics and fuzzy logic modeling to determine concession period in BOT projects , 2012 .

[3]  Ruth Marzi,et al.  Application of system dynamics and fuzzy logic to forecasting of municipal solid waste , 2002, Math. Comput. Simul..

[4]  Sun Wei,et al.  An innovative integration of fuzzy-logic and systems dynamics in sustainable supplier selection: A case on manufacturing industry , 2015, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[5]  Seçkin Polat,et al.  Comparison of fuzzy and crisp systems via system dynamics simulation , 2002, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[6]  Bruno Cassiman,et al.  Introduction to the Special Issue on Strategic Dynamics , 2007, Manag. Sci..

[7]  K. Triantis,et al.  Dynamic simulation modeling and policy analysis of an area-based congestion pricing scheme for a transportation socioeconomic system , 2014 .

[8]  Farnad Nasirzadeh,et al.  Dynamic modeling of the quantitative risk allocation in construction projects , 2014 .

[9]  Sun Wei,et al.  Dynamic modeling of sustainable operation in green manufacturing environment , 2015 .

[10]  M. Porter Towards a dynamic theory of strategy , 1991 .

[11]  Rogelio Oliva,et al.  A comprehensive analytical approach for policy analysis of system dynamics models , 2010, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[12]  Ralf Wieland,et al.  Environmental impact assessment based on dynamic fuzzy simulation , 2014, Environ. Model. Softw..

[13]  John D. Sterman,et al.  Business dynamics : systems thinking and modelling for acomplex world , 2002 .

[14]  John D. Sterman,et al.  System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World , 2002 .

[15]  Ebrahim H. Mamdani,et al.  An Experiment in Linguistic Synthesis with a Fuzzy Logic Controller , 1999, Int. J. Hum. Comput. Stud..

[16]  R. G. Coyle,et al.  System Dynamics Modelling , 1996 .

[17]  R G Coyle,et al.  System Dynamics Modelling: A Practical Approach , 1996 .

[18]  Jay W. Forrester 14 “obvious truths” , 1987 .

[19]  George P. Richardson,et al.  Reflections on the foundations of system dynamics , 2011 .

[20]  John D. W. Morecroft,et al.  System dynamics and microworlds for policymakers , 1988 .

[21]  Jiuping Xu,et al.  Sustainable development-oriented industrial restructuring modeling and analysis: a case study in Leshan , 2014, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy.

[22]  Josefa Mula,et al.  Fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains , 2010, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[23]  Alireza Aliahmadi,et al.  A proposed real options method for assessing investments , 2014 .

[24]  Jack P. C. Kleijnen,et al.  Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models: Regression analysis and statistical design of experiments , 1995 .

[25]  Johan Springael,et al.  Simulation with system dynamics and fuzzy reasoning of a tax policy to reduce CO2 emissions in the residential sector , 2008, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[26]  Richard L. Van Horn,et al.  Validation of Simulation Results , 1971 .

[27]  Markus Schwaninger,et al.  Combining multicriteria decision aid and system dynamics for the control of socio-economic processes. An iterative real-time procedure , 1998, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[28]  Yang-Chi Chang,et al.  An interactive dynamic multi-objective programming model to support better land use planning , 2014 .

[29]  Zhibin Wu,et al.  Predicting and optimization of energy consumption using system dynamics-fuzzy multiple objective programming in world heritage areas , 2013 .

[30]  V. Baradaran,et al.  An integrated approach of system dynamics simulation and fuzzy inference system for retailers’ credit scoring , 2015 .

[31]  Sushil,et al.  A fuzzy set theoretic approach to qualitative analysis of causal loops in system dynamics , 1994 .

[32]  Martin Kunc,et al.  System Dynamics and Strategy , 2008 .

[33]  Jinbo Song,et al.  Modeling the Concession Period and Subsidy for BOT Waste-to-Energy Incineration Projects , 2015 .

[34]  Rogelio Oliva,et al.  Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models , 2003, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[35]  Bertrand Mareschal,et al.  Management of the Future , 2002 .

[36]  Jiuping Xu,et al.  Using system dynamics for simulation and optimization of one coal industry system under fuzzy environment , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[37]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  The Concepts of a Linguistic Variable and its Application to Approximate Reasoning , 1975 .