Preliminary Course Outline and Reading List

Items marked “W" are available on the web. If viewed on screen with an up to date viewer, this file will show links to the bibliography at the end and to URL’s where the paper can be downloaded (in cases where they exist). This version of the reading list marks with a "?" items that either go over material that we covered in nearly the same form in lectures or that add material related to the lectures that you are expected to have read about. The unstarred readings are related to the lectures, but go substantially beyond them to cover material that you will not be responsible for on the exam. In many cases reading the unstarred papers could nonetheless be useful to you. Note that the section on solution methods, which we did cover in one lecture, was not on the original reading list.

[1]  M. Eichenbaum,et al.  On the Fundamentals of Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks , 2000 .

[2]  Thomas J. Sargent,et al.  Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice , 1984 .

[3]  Tao Zha,et al.  DOES MONETARY POLICY GENERATE RECESSIONS? , 2006, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[4]  J. Stock,et al.  INFERENCE IN LINEAR TIME SERIES MODELS WITH SOME UNIT ROOTS , 1990 .

[5]  B. Bernanke,et al.  The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework , 1998 .

[6]  M. Schervish.  Theory of Statistics , 1995 .

[7]  James D. Hamilton.  Time Series Analysis , 1994 .

[8]  Harold L. Cole,et al.  Commodity Trade and International Risk Sharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter? , 1989 .

[9]  T. Lancaster.  An Introduction to Modern Bayesian Econometrics , 2004 .

[10]  C. Sims.  Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts: The effects of monetary policy☆ , 1992 .

[11]  John K Kruschke,et al.  Bayesian data analysis. , 2010, Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Cognitive science.

[12]  C. Sims.  FISCAL CONSEQUENCES FOR MEXICO OF ADOPTING THE DOLLAR , 2001 .

[13]  Sunghyun Kim,et al.  Spurious Welfare Reversals in International Business Cycle Models , 2000 .

[14]  L. J. Savage,et al.  The Foundations of Statistics , 1955 .

[15]  T. Koopmans,et al.  Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives , 1986 .

[16]  Albert Marcet,et al.  Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Parameterizing Expectations , 1990 .

[17]  Gerald S. Rogers,et al.  Mathematical Statistics: A Decision Theoretic Approach , 1967 .

[18]  K. Judd.  Numerical methods in economics , 1998 .

[19]  J. Galí,et al.  Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation , 2007 .

[20]  David J. C. MacKay,et al.  Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms , 2004, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory.

[21]  E. Leeper.  Equilibria under ‘active’ and ‘passive’ monetary and fiscal policies , 1991 .

[22]  Frank Smets,et al.  An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area , 2002 .

[23]  J. Berger.  Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis , 1988 .

[24]  Soyoung Kim,et al.  Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries ? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries * , 1999 .

[25]  Xiao-Li Meng,et al.  Simulating Normalizing Constants: From Importance Sampling to Bridge Sampling to Path Sampling , 1998 .

[26]  Finn E. Kydland,et al.  Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans , 1977, Journal of Political Economy.

[27]  C. Sims.  A Rational Expectations Framework for Short Run Policy Analysis , 1985 .

[28]  Harald Uhlig,et al.  Understanding unit rooters: a helicopter tour , 1991 .

[29]  Tao Zha,et al.  Error Bands for Impulse Responses , 1999 .

[30]  F. Smets,et al.  An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. NBB Working Paper Nr. 35 , 2002 .

[31]  Frank Schorfheide,et al.  On the Fit of New Keynesian Models , 2007 .

[32]  T. Sargent,et al.  Optimal Taxation without State‐Contingent Debt , 2002, Journal of Political Economy.

[33]  Christian P. Robert,et al.  Monte Carlo Statistical Methods (Springer Texts in Statistics) , 2005 .

[34]  A. Scott.  INTEREST AND PRICES: FOUNDATIONS OF A THEORY OF MONETARY POLICY , 2005, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[35]  David B. Dunson,et al.  Bayesian Data Analysis , 2010 .

[36]  M. Woodford.  Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate , 1995 .

[37]  C. Sims.  Implications of rational inattention , 2003 .

[38]  Luc Bauwens,et al.  Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models , 2000 .

[39]  Fabio Canova,et al.  Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model , 2001 .

[40]  J. Galí,et al.  Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory , 1998 .

[41]  Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation , 2006 .

[42]  J. Geweke,et al.  Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics , 2005 .

[43]  C. Sims,et al.  Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models , 1998 .

[44]  Gauti B. Eggertsson,et al.  Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy , 2003, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

[45]  Christopher A. Sims,et al.  Using a likelihood perspective to sharpen econometric discourse: Three examples , 2000 .

[46]  Patrick J. Kehoe,et al.  Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model , 1993, Journal of Political Economy.

[47]  J. Cochrane.  Identification With Taylor Rules: A Critical Review , 2007 .

[48]  T. Sargent,et al.  Evolution and Procedures in Central Banking: Laboratory Experiments with an Expectational Phillips Curve , 2003 .

[49]  John M. Olin.  Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models , 1996 .

[50]  C. Sims.  A simple model for study of the determination of the price level and the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy , 1994 .

[51]  Peter E. Rossi,et al.  On the Optimal Taxation of Capital Income , 1993 .

[52]  Nabil I. Al-Najjar,et al.  The Subjective Approach to Ambiguity: A Critical Assessment , 2008 .

[53]  Olivier J. Blanchard,et al.  The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances , 1988 .

[54]  C. Sims,et al.  Were there Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy , 2006 .

[55]  Olivier J. Blanchard,et al.  Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons , 1984, Journal of Political Economy.

[56]  Albert Marcet,et al.  Accuracy in Simulations , 1994 .

[57]  F. Mat.  Rationally Inattentive Seller: Sales and Discrete Pricing , 2009 .

[58]  M. Eichenbaum,et al.  Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities , 2008 .

[59]  Frank Schorfheide,et al.  Loss function‐based evaluation of DSGE models , 2000 .

[60]  J. Cochrane,et al.  Money as Stock: Price Level Determination with No Money Demand , 2000 .

[61]  T. Zha.  Bankruptcy Law, Capital Allocation, and Aggregate Effects: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Agent Model with Incomplete Markets , 1995 .

[62]  R. Barro,et al.  A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model , 1981, Journal of Political Economy.

[63]  Timothy Cogley,et al.  The Conquest of U.S. Inflation: Learning and Robustness to Model Uncertainty , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[64]  L. J. Savage,et al.  The Foundations of Statistics , 1955 .

[65]  Kenneth S. Rogoff,et al.  Foundations of International Macroeconomics , 1997 .

[66]  Frank Schorfheide,et al.  On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[67]  Jorma Rissanen,et al.  Lectures on Statistical Modeling Theory , 2002 .

[68]  C. Sims.  Fiscal Foundations of Price Stability in Open Economies , 1997 .

[69]  Federal Deficit Policy and the Effects of Public Debt Shocks , 1980 .

[70]  C. Sims,et al.  What Does Monetary Policy Do , 1996 .

[71]  Christopher A. Sims,et al.  Macroeconomics and Methodology , 1996 .

[72]  C. Sims.  Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models , 2002 .

[73]  Jonathan D. Cryer,et al.  Time Series Analysis , 1986 .

[74]  Robert E. Lucas,et al.  Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital , 1983 .

[75]  Christopher A. Sims,et al.  Projecting policy effects with statistical models , 1988 .

[76]  L. Tesar,et al.  Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements , 1990 .