Periodic and Chaotic Dynamics in Childhood Infections

Most biologists, when confronted with a time series, assume that the dynamical possibilities are quite limited. Either a system sits still, presumably at equilibrium, or it may oscillate with a fixed period. Anything else, they will probably tell you, is evidence of noise — observational error or chance perturbations from without. By these criteria, most biological systems, especially at the population level, are extremely noisy. Hence, it is no accident that mathematical biology places a heavy emphasis on stochastic models as well as on statistical techniques designed to extract the “deterministic” component of the signal.

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