Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Manage Dryland Crops in Northern Australia — Experiences from the 1997/98 Seasons

In Australia, like in many other parts of the world, a significant proportion of rainfall variability is associated with the El Nino / Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of the ocean/atmosphere ENSO phenomenon and future rainfall amount and temporal distribution in eastern Australia and many other areas across the globe. A skilful seasonal climate forecast provides an opportunity for farm managers to better tailor crop management decisions to the season. This forms the basis for a probabilistic crop production forecasting system used operationally in Australia where high rainfall variability is the major source of dryland yield fluctuations.

[1]  Graeme L. Hammer,et al.  Assessing climatic risk to sorghum production in water-limited subtropical environments. I.Development and testing of a simulation model , 1994 .

[2]  H. Meinke,et al.  Effects of sorghum ergot on grain sorghum production: a preliminary climatic analysis , 1997 .

[3]  Woodruff,et al.  Relationship between time of anthesis and grain yield of wheat genotypes with differing developmental pattern , 1983 .

[4]  Holger Meinke,et al.  Assessing exceptional drought with a cropping systems simulator: a case study for grain production in northeast Australia , 1998 .

[5]  H. Meinke,et al.  Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases : an example for the Australian peanut industry , 1997 .

[6]  G. Hammer,et al.  Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index , 1996, Nature.

[7]  M. Khandekar.  EL Niño/Southern Oscillation, Indian Monsoon and World Grain Yields — a Synthesis , 1996 .

[8]  N. Nicholls,et al.  Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems : the Australian experience , 2000 .

[9]  Holger Meinke,et al.  Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective , 1996 .

[10]  Graeme L. Hammer,et al.  Effects of climatic variability and possible climatic change on reliability of wheat cropping. A modelling approach , 1987 .

[11]  G. Hammer,et al.  Comparing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Systems in Managing Cropping Systems , 2000 .

[12]  B. White.  The Importance of Climate Variability and Seasonal Forecasting to the Australian Economy , 2000 .

[13]  Holger Meinke,et al.  The Potential Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Managing Cropping Systems , 2000 .

[14]  Holger Meinke,et al.  On tactical crop management using seasonal climate forecasts and simulation modelling: a case study for wheat , 1997 .

[15]  Holger Meinke,et al.  SOI PHASES AND CLIMATIC RISK TO PEANUT PRODUCTION: A CASE STUDY FOR NORTHERN AUSTRALIA , 1996 .

[16]  Roger Stone,et al.  SOI phase relationships with rainfall in eastern Australia , 1992 .

[17]  Holger Meinke,et al.  Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT) , 1998 .

[18]  Graeme L. Hammer,et al.  APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research , 1996 .

[19]  D. Holzworth,et al.  The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability , 1996 .

[20]  Graeme L. Hammer,et al.  Frost in Northeast Australia: Trends and Influences of Phases of the Southern Oscillation , 1996 .