Uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling and source determination

In the context of the verification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty based on the radionuclide monitoring network and atmospheric dispersion modelling, the uncertainties inherent to the model results and their appreciation in the interpretation process can be a highly critical matter. However, the issue of uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion modelling has so far been addressed by the scientific community in rather general terms only, and we are still far from established practices. This contributions presents a list of sources of uncertainty in dispersion modelling and the subsequent source determination together with preliminary ideas how they might be quantified in an operational context.1