Temporal changes in the cumulative piecewise gradient of a variant of the Gutenberg–Richter relationship, and the imminence of extreme events

[1]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales , 2006 .

[2]  Zhongliang Wu,et al.  Test of the Preshock Accelerating Moment Release (amr) in the Case of the 26 December 2004 Mw 9.0 Indonesia Earthquake , 2005 .

[3]  John McCloskey,et al.  Seismology: Earthquake risk on the Sunda trench , 2005, Nature.

[4]  D. Perkins,et al.  Evidence for a global seismic-moment release sequence , 2005 .

[5]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions in Italy: a review , 2005 .

[6]  Maya Paczuski,et al.  Complex networks of earthquakes and aftershocks , 2004, physics/0408018.

[7]  Cinna Lomnitz,et al.  Major Earthquakes of Chile: A Historical Survey, 1535-1960 , 2004 .

[8]  John B. Rundle,et al.  Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems , 2003 .

[9]  Willy P Aspinall,et al.  Evidence-based volcanology: application to eruption crises , 2003 .

[10]  A. Lombardi,et al.  The Maximum Likelihood Estimator of b-Value for Mainshocks , 2003 .

[11]  A. Ziv,et al.  Spatiotemporal Analyses of Earthquake Productivity and Size Distribution: Observations and Simulations , 2003 .

[12]  Christopher R. J. Kilburn,et al.  Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions , 2003 .

[13]  J. Ebel Seismologists Must Begin Forecasting Earthquakes , 2003 .

[14]  A. A. Soloviev,et al.  Nonlinear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction , 2003 .

[15]  D. Sornette,et al.  Search for direct empirical spatial correlation signatures of the critical triggering earthquake model , 2002, cond-mat/0208498.

[16]  R. Musson,et al.  Constraints on the frequency-magnitude relation and maximum magnitudes in the UK from observed seismicity and glacio-isostatic recovery rates , 2002 .

[17]  Stephen S. Gao,et al.  Temporal variation of seismic b‐values beneath northeastern Japan island arc , 2002 .

[18]  Kenneth W. Campbell,et al.  Seismic Hazard Analysis , 2002 .

[19]  J. Chéry,et al.  A Physical Basis for Time Clustering of Large Earthquakes , 2001 .

[20]  Geoffrey C. P. King,et al.  Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes , 2001 .

[21]  P. Bernard From the search of ‘precursors’ to the research on ‘crustal transients’ , 2001 .

[22]  F. Evison Long-range synoptic earthquake forecasting: an aim for the millennium , 2001 .

[23]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Non-linear dynamics of the lithosphere and intermediate-term earthquake prediction , 2001 .

[24]  Yehuda Ben-Zion,et al.  Accelerated Seismic Release and Related Aspects of Seismicity Patterns on Earthquake Faults , 2001 .

[25]  S. Strogatz Exploring complex networks , 2001, Nature.

[26]  D. Stephenson Use of the “Odds Ratio” for Diagnosing Forecast Skill , 2000 .

[27]  S. Wesnousky Crustal deformation processes and the stability of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship , 1999, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[28]  Bruce E. Shaw,et al.  Rethinking Earthquake Prediction , 1999 .

[29]  Ruth A. Harris,et al.  Introduction to Special Section: Stress Triggers, Stress Shadows, and Implications for Seismic Hazard , 1998 .

[30]  R. Kerr Can Great Quakes Extend Their Reach? , 1998, Science.

[31]  F. Pollitz,et al.  Viscosity of oceanic asthenosphere inferred from remote triggering of earthquakes , 1998, Science.

[32]  D. Sornette,et al.  An observational test of the critical earthquake concept , 1998, cond-mat/9803204.

[33]  Robert J. Geller,et al.  Earthquake prediction: a critical review , 1997 .

[34]  Yan Y. Kagan,et al.  Are earthquakes predictable , 1997 .

[35]  Max Wyss,et al.  Cannot Earthquakes Be Predicted , 1997 .

[36]  M. G. Shnirman,et al.  Hierarchical model of seismicity: scaling and predictability , 1997 .

[37]  Y. Kagan,et al.  Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted , 1997, Science.

[38]  L. Knopoff A selective phenomenology of the seismicity of Southern California. , 1996, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[39]  T. Levshina,et al.  Increased long‐range intermediate‐magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California , 1996 .

[40]  D. Sornette,et al.  Rank‐ordering statistics of extreme events: Application to the distribution of large earthquakes , 1995, cond-mat/9510035.

[41]  Max Wyss,et al.  Inadvertent changes in magnitude reported in earthquake catalogs: Their evaluation through b-value estimates , 1995, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[42]  Ian G. Main,et al.  EARTHQUAKES AS CRITICAL PHENOMENA - IMPLICATIONS FOR PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS , 1995 .

[43]  Enzo Boschi,et al.  Forecasting where larger crustal earthquakes are likely to occur in Italy in the near future , 1995, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[44]  Ari Ben-Menahem,et al.  A concise history of mainstream seismology: Origins, legacy, and perspectives , 1995 .

[45]  Y. Ogata,et al.  The Centenary of the Omori Formula for a Decay Law of Aftershock Activity , 1995 .

[46]  V. I. Keilis-Borok,et al.  Symptoms of instability in a system of earthquake-prone faults , 1994 .

[47]  David J. Varnes,et al.  Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay Region , 1993 .

[48]  Yosihiko Ogata,et al.  Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model , 1992 .

[49]  D. Turcotte Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics , 1992 .

[50]  Javier F. Pacheco,et al.  Changes in frequency–size relationship from small to large earthquakes , 1992, Nature.

[51]  A. Lindh The Nature of Earthquake Prediction , 2003 .

[52]  R. E. Habermann,et al.  Seismicity rate variations and systematic changes in magnitudes in teleseismic catalogs , 1991 .

[53]  R. R. Cornelius,et al.  Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time , 1991, Nature.

[54]  L. Reiter Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and Insights , 1991 .

[55]  Leon Knopoff,et al.  Intermediate‐term prediction in advance of the Loma Prieta Earthquake , 1990 .

[56]  W. Thatcher Order and diversity in the modes of Circum-Pacific Earthquake recurrence , 1990 .

[57]  Vladimir Kossobokov,et al.  Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: algorithm M8 , 1990 .

[58]  Vladimir I. Keilis-borok,et al.  Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world , 1990 .

[59]  David J. Varnes,et al.  Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity , 1989 .

[60]  W. Aspinall,et al.  The earthquake hazard alert of September 1982 in Southern Tobago , 1988 .

[61]  b values of shallow earthquakes in Taiwan , 1988 .

[62]  B. Voight,et al.  A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions , 1988, Nature.

[63]  S. P. Nishenko,et al.  A generic recurrence interval distribution for earthquake forecasting , 1987 .

[64]  C. King Predictability of slip events along a laboratory fault , 1986 .

[65]  Warwick D. Smith Evidence For Precursory Changes In the Frequency‐Magnitude B‐Value , 1986 .

[66]  W. H. Bakun,et al.  The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment , 1985, Science.

[67]  Bernice Bender,et al.  Maximum likelihood estimation of b values for magnitude grouped data , 1983 .

[68]  Hiroo Kanamori,et al.  Magnitude scale and quantification of earthquakes , 1983 .

[69]  Jack F. Evernden,et al.  Earthquake prediction: What we have learned and what we should do now , 1982 .

[70]  L. Knopoff,et al.  b Values for foreshocks and aftershocks in real and simulated earthquake sequences , 1982 .

[71]  Warwick D. Smith The b-value as an earthquake precursor , 1981, Nature.

[72]  John G. Anderson Estimating the seismicity from geological structure for seismic-risk studies , 1979 .

[73]  Peter Molnar,et al.  Earthquake recurrence intervals and plate tectonics , 1979 .

[74]  A. Lindh,et al.  The Parkfield prediction experiment , 1979 .

[75]  H. Kanamori The energy release in great earthquakes , 1977 .

[76]  C. R. Allen,et al.  Responsibilities in earthquake prediction: To the Seismological Society of America, delivered in Edmonton, Alberta, May 12, 1976 , 1976 .

[77]  R. Adams The Haicheng, China, earthquake of 4 February 1975; the first successfully predicted major earthquake† , 1976 .

[78]  L. Knopoff,et al.  Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? , 1974, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[79]  G. Fiedler Local b-values related to seismicity , 1974 .

[80]  J. T. Kuo,et al.  Statistical prediction of the occurrence of maximum magnitude earthquakes : 13F, 4T, 12R Seismol. Soc. Amer. Bull. V64, N2, April, 1974, P393–414 , 1974 .

[81]  J. Evernden,et al.  Study of regional seismicity and associated problems , 1970, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[82]  V. I. Keylis-Borok,et al.  One regularity in the occurrence of strong earthquakes , 1964 .

[83]  John Ignatius Griffin,et al.  Statistics; methods and applications , 1963 .

[84]  B. Gutenberg,et al.  Frequency of Earthquakes in California , 1944, Nature.