Predicting Regions Susceptible to High Concentrations of Airborne Volcanic Ash in the North Pacific Region (Abstract Only)

Volcanic ash clouds from 22 of the 100 historically most active volcanoes in the North Pacific (NOPAC) region have been simulated in order to generate airborne ash probability distribution (AAPD) maps to display the distribution of airborne volcanic ash in the region. The PUFF ash-dispersion model was executed daily utilizing archived wind field data between 1994-1995 and 1997-2001 for high and low aircraft flight levels. The AAPD maps suggest that volcanic eruptions that originate from the Kamchatkan Peninsula would travel due east into the NOPAC air traffic routes during the summer. Wind directions over the Kamchatkan Peninsula are more variable during the winter, which results in a bimodal ash distribution. On the other hand, AAPD maps indicate that volcanic eruptions that originate from the Alaskan Peninsula and the Aleutians are more likely to travel east-northeast during the winter and southeast during the summer. The upper atmospheric region that is generally centered over the heavy air traffic flight corridor of the NOPAC, and is most likely to contain airborne ash, is located off the eastern coast of the Kamchatkan Peninsula.

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