Developing social-ecological system indicators using group model building

In many coastal regions, activities of multiple users present a growing strain on the ecological state of the area. The necessity of using integrative system approaches to understand and solve coastal problems has become obvious in the last decades. Integrated management strategies for social-ecological systems (SESs) call for the development of SES indicators that help (i) to identify and link the states and processes of social, economic and ecological subsystems and (ii) to balance different stakeholder objectives over the long-term within natural limits. Here we use a system dynamics modeling approach called group model building (GMB) as a diagnostic participative tool for understanding the determinants of characteristic SES issues in the Dutch Wadden Sea region and exploring salient SES indicators for management. We used GMB in two separate workshops for two distinct cases: sustainable mussel fisheries and tourism development. Follow-up online questionnaires elicited relevant variables for deriving SES indicators. In both modeling cases participants identified and connected the variables that expressed fundamental SES dynamics driving each issue. In the mussel fisheries model the central part of the structure was the interaction between the model variables ‘extent of mussel habitat with high natural value’, ‘mussel cultivation efficiency’, and ‘market supply’. In the tourism model a key driving force for explaining tourist development was the reciprocal relation between the model variables ‘natural value’, ‘experience value’, and ‘number of tourists’. Application of GMB revealed SES issue complexity and explicitly identified key linkages and potential SES indicators for policy and management in the Dutch Wadden Sea area. As a tool for stakeholder involvement in integrated coastal management the approach enables the joint building of system understanding and the exchange of individual perspectives. Participants agreed with the jointly created models and highly appreciated the way the structured approach facilitated communication and learning about complex and contested issues.

[1]  John Hayward,et al.  Model behaviour and the concept of loop impact: A practical method , 2014 .

[2]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty , 2013 .

[3]  R. Turner,et al.  Integrating natural and socio-economic science in coastal management , 2000 .

[4]  Diana Giebels,et al.  Strengthening coastal zone management in the Wadden Sea by applying ‘knowledge-practice interfaces’ , 2015 .

[5]  Jan H. Kwakkel,et al.  Using System Dynamics for Grand Challenges: The ESDMA Approach , 2015 .

[6]  Raúl Medina,et al.  A systems approach to identify sets of indicators: Applications to coastal management , 2012 .

[7]  J. Sterman.  Learning in and about complex systems , 1994 .

[8]  Nuno Videira,et al.  Participatory decision making for sustainable development—the use of mediated modelling techniques , 2006 .

[9]  Michiel Daams,et al.  Deep feelings around a shallow coast. A spatial analysis of tourism jobs and the attractivity of nature in the Dutch Wadden area , 2012 .

[10]  George P. Richardson,et al.  Group model building: problem structuring, policy simulation and decision support , 2007, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[11]  Dean Tjosvold,et al.  Book review : Group model building : facilitating team learning using system dynamics , 1998 .

[12]  Benjamin Burkhard,et al.  Interactions of ecosystem properties, ecosystem integrity and ecosystem service indicators—A theoretical matrix exercise , 2013 .

[13]  P. Herman,et al.  The Wadden Sea Region: Towards a science for sustainable development , 2012 .

[14]  Sajjad Ahmad,et al.  Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems , 2012, Water Resources Management.

[15]  George P. Richardson,et al.  Concept models in group model building , 2013 .

[16]  C. S. Holling.  Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems , 2001, Ecosystems.

[17]  D. Schweiger,et al.  Building Commitment, Attachment, and Trust in Strategic Decision-Making Teams: The Role of Procedural Justice , 1995 .

[18]  Denis Bailly,et al.  Synthesis, part of a Special Feature on A Systems Approach for Sustainable Development in Coastal Zones A Systems Approach Framework for the Transition to Sustainable Development: Potential Value Based on Coastal Experiments , 2012 .

[19]  C. Wild,et al.  Measuring and understanding sustainability-enhancing processes in tropical coastal and marine social–ecological systems. , 2012 .

[20]  S. Jørgensen,et al.  Twenty volumes of ecological indicators – An accounting short review , 2013 .

[21]  K. Stave.  Using system dynamics to improve public participation in environmental decisions , 2002 .

[22]  Kristine L. Kelly.  A systems approach to identifying decisive information for sustainable development , 1998, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[23]  Gerald J. Niemi,et al.  Application of Ecological Indicators , 2004 .

[24]  Ratana Chuenpagdee,et al.  Fisheries and coastal governance as a wicked problem , 2009 .

[25]  W. Ulrich,et al.  Beyond methodology choice: critical systems thinking as critically systemic discourse , 2003, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[26]  Gary Brierley,et al.  The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Integrated Water Resources Management , 2007 .

[27]  Gary Brierley,et al.  The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resources Management , 2009 .

[28]  D. Bruce Johnsen,et al.  Salmon, Science, and Reciprocity on the Northwest Coast , 2009 .

[29]  Richard N. Palmer,et al.  Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices , 2013 .

[30]  K. D. Exter.  Integrating environmental science and management: the role of system dynamics modelling , 2004 .

[31]  V. N. Jonge,et al.  Integrating ecological, economic and social aspects to generate useful management information under the EU Directives' ‘ecosystem approach’ , 2012 .

[32]  A. V. Buuren,et al.  Ecosystem-based management in the Wadden Sea: Principles for the governance of knowledge , 2013 .

[33]  Robert E. Bowen,et al.  Socio-economic indicators and integrated coastal management , 2003 .

[34]  Geoff Coyle,et al.  Qualitative and quantitative modelling in system dynamics: some research questions , 2000 .

[35]  John D. Sterman,et al.  All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist† , 2002 .

[36]  Diana Giebels,et al.  Handling the 'environmental knowledge paradox' in estuarine and coastal policy making , 2015 .

[37]  C. Prell,et al.  Unpacking “Participation” in the Adaptive Management of Social–ecological Systems: a Critical Review , 2006 .

[38]  Russell Richards,et al.  A participatory approach for system conceptualization and analysis applied to coastal management in Egypt , 2014, Environ. Model. Softw..

[39]  H. Vacik,et al.  Mapping indicator models: From intuitive problem structuring to quantified decision-making in sustainable forest management , 2011 .

[40]  A. Bagheri,et al.  Navigating towards sustainable development: A system dynamics approach , 2006 .

[41]  E. Ostrom,et al.  Insight, part of a Special Feature on A Framework for Analyzing, Comparing, and Diagnosing Social-Ecological Systems Social-ecological system framework: initial changes and continuing challenges , 2014 .

[42]  P. C. Nutt,et al.  Why Decisions Fail: Avoiding the Blunders and Traps That Lead to Debacles , 2002 .

[43]  Mitchell Pavao-Zuckerman,et al.  Conceptual Models as Tools for Communication Across Disciplines , 2003 .

[44]  François Bousquet,et al.  Modelling with stakeholders , 2010, Environ. Model. Softw..

[45]  M. Schlüter,et al.  Research, part of a Special Feature on A Framework for Analyzing, Comparing, and Diagnosing Social-Ecological Systems Application of the SES Framework for Model-based Analysis of the Dynamics of Social-Ecological Systems , 2014 .

[46]  B. Head,et al.  Wicked Problems , 2015 .

[47]  J. Kaczorowski,et al.  On the structure , 1999 .

[48]  A. Specht,et al.  Assisting stakeholder decision making using system dynamics group model-building , 2003 .

[49]  Etiënne A. J. A. Rouwette,et al.  Developing an effective adaptive monitoring network to support integrated coastal management in a multiuser nature reserve , 2015 .

[50]  H. Bossel.  Indicators for sustainable Development : theory, method, applications : a report to the Balaton Group , 1999 .

[51]  George Sugihara,et al.  A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems , 2009 .

[52]  Colin Eden,et al.  Analyzing cognitive maps to help structure issues or problems , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[53]  Leonard A. Malczynski,et al.  A fresh look at a policy sciences methodology: collaborative modeling for more effective policy , 2009 .

[54]  Anthony J. Jakeman,et al.  Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[55]  Stefan N. Groesser,et al.  Mental models of dynamic systems: taking stock and looking ahead , 2012 .

[56]  M. Oliveira,et al.  Artisanal fisheries analysis using System Dynamics : the case of dredge fisheries in Portugal , 2011 .

[57]  David H. Gustafson,et al.  Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes , 1976 .

[58]  Christian Erik Kampmann,et al.  Analytical Methods for Structural Dominance Analysis in System Dynamics , 2017 .

[59]  M. V. D. Belt,et al.  Mediated Modeling: A System Dynamics Approach To Environmental Consensus Building , 2004 .

[60]  C. Philippart,et al.  Large-Scale Spatial Dynamics of Intertidal Mussel (Mytilus edulis L.) Bed Coverage in the German and Dutch Wadden Sea , 2014, Ecosystems.

[61]  E F Wolstenholme,et al.  Qualitative vs quantitative modelling: the evolving balance , 1999, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[62]  E. Rouwette,et al.  The Role of Ecological Science in Environmental Policy Making: from a Pacification toward a Facilitation Strategy , 2009 .

[63]  Etiënne A. J. A. Rouwette,et al.  How to structure and prioritize information needs in support of monitoring design for Integrated Coastal Management , 2014 .

[64]  Krystyna Anne Stave,et al.  Participatory system dynamics modeling for sustainable environmental management: Observations from four cases , 2010 .

[65]  Mary C. Hill,et al.  Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[66]  Jac A. M. Vennix,et al.  Group model-building: tackling messy problems , 1999 .

[67]  Simon Peck,et al.  Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics , 1996, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[68]  Johan Woltjer,et al.  Participatory Decision-Making for Sustainable Consumption , 2009 .

[69]  Elinor Ostrom,et al.  Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems , 2007, Science.

[70]  M. Glaser,et al.  SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS IN COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS: A PATH TOWARD INTEGRATION OF INTERDISCIPLINARY KNOWLEDGE , 2009 .